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this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2026
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In the short run for sure.
I think they won't stop expending production until they've saturated the market. Unlike Micron they won't lose their capital backing when their margins disappear from low prices. RAM is systemically important and the state will keep its RAM producers capitalized at non-profit margins. Because RAM underpins the rest of the Chinese economy these days. It's important for RAM to be cheap. So I bet they'll expand production past the point where prices start falling, and keep expanding till they fall to the point where they make no profit. At that point Micron would be under and they'll purchase it for pennies on the dollar. Samsung would probably stay around because they're a quasi-state firm and the Korean state will keep their RAM business capitalized for the same reason China would. After all Korea still manufactures plenty of stuff.
Agreed. It's not because we're all going to be swimming in CXMT ram. It's because it's going to hopefully force everyone else to suddenly be competitive.