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Solar production keeps exceeding predictions
(lemmy.nz)
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this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2026
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Lol what is that latest preduction? "Sure, solar production has risen like never before, but surely now the production will plateau."
listen, I have been wrong every time, but this time, when I make the same prediction that has been wrong every time previously, you're gonna feel real dumb for doubting me
I mean. Some of them predicted it would go down. So.
Depends who the study is funded by - if it's fossil fuels, then yes.
I think this chart gives the feeling of plateau, because it’s showing the projected rates of growth at different times, but the move the baseline up to the actual production level at the time it was projected.
So actually each new estimate is for a higher rate of growth overall, but all have still fallen short of reality. Possibly because non of them had “idiot invades country unprovoked and disrupts worldwide oil supply” in the estimate.
With all these data centres driving demand, probably not any time soon.
Aren't they mostly running on fossil fuels?
Yeah, because they also run at night…
Solar while day gas during the night is a very common scheme. Works well with solar and wind because gas turbines can spin up very quickly.
LLM datacencers just don't care about the environment, nor costs past a year or so and prioritize speed over everything. They can't be bothered getting more land and permits for renewables.
They'd be in the perfect position to cut their gas use in half with 2 years roi, or to two thirds or less with maybe 5 years roi. I suppose even they don't think it can continue on like this.
Effectively Techbros, bankers and billionaires don’t care about carbon pollution killing us all. It can’t be the case or they may have to change the way they do business.