I don't see how this is going to work for the US (tech giants). The Asian countries where these data centers are located aren't going to enforce such a rule. They're far more dependent on China than on the US, and even if they do agree, they'll allow another loophole (for example, access from a different country that Alibaba and friends use as a proxy). So the existing compute capacity isn't going to disappear and Alibaba and friends will keep using it to build new models released for free for at least a few more years. If they need new capacity and can't get their hands on Nvidia chips, they'll just start doing what Chairman Xi has been telling them to do all along - use domestic chips, which, from what I read, are already starting to work, even if they're not as efficient as Nvidia's. And efficiency isn't a problem - China has a ton of green energy and 21st-century energy infrastructure. So I don't see how the US can stop, or even meaningfully slow down, the development of Chinese models.

I think they're going to run into hard limits in the current American political-economic model that they can't get around. (The market model where everyone optimizes for maximum margin and doesn't cooperate with other parts of the economy through the state.) The Chinese model runs on much lower margins and if they can't stop it physically by limiting resources, the only way to compete would be to drop the margins, and that would cause a massive economic reorg of the US, probably political too.