this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2023
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I like your optimism but theres not a lot of great examples of the little guys winning lately. I'm not sure exactly how, but I predict things end badly for Lemmy. Just seems like a more likely outcome in today's world. Guessing reddit does ok everyone just ends up a bit more miserable than before. Sorry for being a turd, I just think your prediction is statistically unlikely.
Except Lemmy isn't a single Lemmy.com that will one day run out of money and implode into nothingness.
Lemmy, Mastodon, and other ActivityPub based Fediverse Networks are muliti-node systems.
This is just pure nihilism without a hint of thought put into it. Nothing short of the world exploding and human annihilation will kill Lemmy, And even then, there are bots.
Bonkers. There is a critical mass that keeps people willing to support it. I can run an original Quake server and find a few people to play with, but distrubuted multinode systems don't mean a damn without a critical mass user base. Lemmy is far from bulletproof.
This is Apples to Oranges.
Quake is dead because modern and frequently updated options exist, even 1-1 like Xonotic.
The alternative to Lemmy is Reddit which will only continue to enshittify.
A more apt comparison is Bullentin boards.
Bulletin boards still exist in the modern era, and are in frequent use, despite their age.
I'm not suggesting this social media format will die, it's just likely that a corporate entity will develop a lemmy alternative that becomes more popular and causes fatal atrophy or Reddit will get new leadership and Lemmy hopefuls will cross back over if content development here is slower than the collective patience. I'm pro Lemmy FYI, I just don't understand the unbridled optimism about it's future.