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this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2023
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politics
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A third party hasn't had a legitimate chance at winning an election in over 100 years.
The US is pretty much a bad election or two from becoming a fascist theocracy, so I sure as hell hope no third party tries to split votes for the democrats.
We're in survival mode now, but hopefully we can ride out the cult and actually have some breathing room to look at other options.
This is true. It's depressing but true. We have to hang on for a few more years. Maybe 2 cycles at the most. The hardcover right wing base is dying. And it is dying fast. I did the math awhile back because nobody else did.
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That's 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot but it's 300k a month, 3.6 million per year, and 7.2 million since the 2020 election. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it's a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it's 30 million. It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly.
Their days are numbered. We just have to hold on for a few more years.