this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2023
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The "second round" of the game is always just, "flip your odds of winning if you swap". That's all it is.
Monty will always open the proper doors to ensure this happens every time. Did you pick the winning door in the first round? Monty will eliminate all other doors but leave one of the losers. Did you pick a losing door in the first round? Monty will eliminate all the other losers and only leave the winner. It's always the opposite of what you picked. Therefore, if you swap, you will simply get the opposite odds of the first round.
100 doors to pick from, only 1 winner? 1/100 chance to win if you just picked at random and ended it there. Now Monty offers a swap. Without the swap, you have 99 different ways to lose this. But with the swap, all 99 of those ways become winners, because Monty will always swap the opposite with you.