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It Will Be an Election Unlike Any We’ve Lived Through. Are the Democrats Prepared?
(newrepublic.com)
this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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politics
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This only holds when the respective parties are roughly evenly tied with one another and the two major parties have the marginally more-popular candidates.
In a state where one party or the other is an overwhelming favorite to win, this math doesn't matter. In a state where both parties have put up a shit candidate (say, you're in Arizona or West Virginia and being asked to support Kristen Sinema or Joe Manchin yet again), a third party vote is the only way to clear the deck of deplorable alternatives. If you're in Nebraska and the popular frontrunner is the indie union activist Dan Osbourn you would be foolish to vote party line as that's effectively a vote for Deb Fischer.
No, it holds regardless. Your argument is the same as saying there's no point in voting if you don't win.
Your real problem is as I said, Primary Elections, where we have EXCEPTIONALLY terrible voter turnout. The primaries are where you choose your party representatives. If you are complaining about the General election, the fight was already lost.
This is demonstrably true, though. Hell, there's no point to voting if you do win, when the election is sufficiently lopsided. The general election process is the tail end of a far larger and more financially involved whittling of the candidate pool.
Even then, the focus is on building a movement rather than a single candidate's campaign. Elections are not one-and-done. Candidates can rise and fall in iterative races based on the coalitions they built (or squandered) in prior campaigns.
Turnout hardly matters when only a few candidates have the resources to compete. This Presidential primary is case-in-point. When Trump is favored to win 60% of the primary vote and Biden is virtually uncontested, volume of participation is irrelevant. Whether turnout is 10% or 100%, the same two guys are going to move on to the general.
I'll spot you that primaries have an outsized influence and that entryists in the democratic process are savvy to focus their attentions on these races. But Beto O'Rourke winning the primary for Texas Senate and then Texas Governor did nothing to overcome the enormous support-deficit he suffered in the general.
So what do you propose? Do what instead of voting? Seems like the lowest hanging fruit to me. The left tends to win with turnout. The left tends to be more progressive and more conducive to evidence based problem solving. Fixing the parties at the primary level seems like the lowest effort solution for the largest pay off.
Encouraging voter apathy is counterproductive, unless you are going to propose we do something else that's more effective for the same energy expenditure.
I truly believe that if every person who complained about politics spent as much time voting as they did complaining, we'd have a more representative government.
We complain about a government that is corrupt, run by the wealthy as if we're not the ones who put them there. Inaction is an action. Why should they represent our interests if we don't even vote? All not voting tells a politician is that you aren't their constituent.
Depends heavily on what kind of problems you're facing at home. In my home town of Houston, the state government has hijacked the school board of HISD and imposed a bunch of shitty rules and regs, designed to waste money and torture kids. So I joined my local PTA. We go to meetings and harass/shame the bureaucrats involved. We reach out to the teachers and administrators who are under the gun to enforce these policies and offer them our support. There was a picket of the school district's office in October for instance.
Direct action - refusing to comply with harmful public policy, harassing public officials who are advocating and endorsing this policy, and getting other parents and teachers on board with alternative policy that you can implement outside the scope of the administration - is an effective means of undermining an unelected bureaucracy appointed by a corrupt state government.
There's more to politics than complaining. You need workable alternative and you need a popular consensus. Ten different people all pulling in ten different directions won't affect any kind of change. But ten activists with a shared understanding and vision, pulling in the same direction can.
We're not. Far more often, it is the wealthy and well-organized interest and advocacy groups that put these people in power.
Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton aren't rogue agents who just kinda bubbled up from a political morass. They are the direct beneficiaries of large social mobilizations - O&G lobbying groups paid for with overpriced fossil fuels, large religious organizations like Houston's Second Baptist Church and Lakewood Church which galvenize masses of people along socially conservative political issues, doctors and lawyers and real estate associations and car dealership clubs who have formed cartels designed to guarantee higher salaries. One of the most politically active people in my community is Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, a local celebrity businessman with a penchant for hookers and blow and QAnon conspiracy bullshit. This guy single-handedly bankrolls half a dozen talk-radio shock jocks with his advertising money and influences hundreds of thousands of my neighbors. Another is Dr. Peter Hoetz, a close personal friend of Dinesh D'Souza, who helped produce "2000 Mules" a documentary about how Joe Biden stole the 2020 election from Donald Trump.
Knowing who these people are and how they influence the body politick is instrumental in understanding where and how public opinion is crafted and distributed. If you're just showing up to the polls every two years and praying that Truth Will Prevail, you're walking to the slaughter. Only by recognizing who these assholes are, how they're seeding conspiracy theory and bigotry into the public domain, and where they fucking live so you can put a few rocks through their windows, can you discourage them from continuing.