this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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We probably agree overall but I gotta point out: in political science, it’s definitely not considered superstition. If it were just throwing salt over the shoulder, we wouldn’t be able to consistently verify the hypothesis. It remains one of the stronger electoral advantages for outcome prediction.
That tangarine palpatine lost in spite of this advantage is more a testament to his lack of popularity among the general electorate. And btw one of the strongest known DISadvantages is having lost an election previously. The quants will have a field day with this one either way.
TL;DR Incumbency advantage is real.