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Yo, can some of this wage growth trickle down to me already? Nobody in my circles is even getting standard merit raises, never mind the 6%+ each year we’d need to stay ahead of inflation. Most companies seem to be withholding raises, and enshittifying existing policies, as an underhanded way to get people to quit without doing actual layoffs.
In fact, I suspect slate is just making this up entirely, based on anecdotal experience. They go on to claim that the big recipients of these wage increases are the lowest paid workers. Does that mean minimum wage earners got some 50% increase to now make $12/hr? News flash: that still doesn’t afford you groceries in today’s economy.
I mean they "aren't" in that they've got citations, but its important to dig into that.
Salon is treating these metrics as fixed objects with some magical immutable definition. But the reality is that we've simply redefined what these tools mean, and then accepted the redefinition as if it always meant that. But quite literally, the way these numbers are calculated have been redefined to be basically useless. Look at inflation and CPI: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts. I can go backwards from my grocery receipts and look at what individual items cost me. We've seen at LEAST 10% annual inflation on basically every item on our grocery bill since 2019-2020. Almost every item is 40% more expensive than it was with some items being almost doubled in price.
Look at unemployment, where the Fed conveniently just ignore long term unemployment: https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts. We lost union jobs for 401ks, then we lost full time jobs with benefits for the gig economy. Shits fucked and we've got the Feds and Salon blowing sunshine up our asses.
Right, these record unemployment and CPI numbers are derived by changing the calculations, it’s amazing how quickly that’s been forgotten. This is the true power of controlling the narrative of the American propaganda machine.
For those “enjoying” this record employment, it still means busting ass working 2-3 low paying jobs just to barely make ends meet. Those same jobs won’t let you get above 32 hours either, so forget about benefits afforded to full time employees, such as marginally more affordable healthcare. And over 62% of Americans are literally living paycheck to paycheck, unable to afford an emergency $400 expense. Good thing they have backup financing available at payday lenders on every street corner I suppose…
It’s really sad how brutal America is to its own citizens. And mind boggling how twisted Americans are to deny this is happening at all until they’re blue in the face. Open your eyes and your ears people, think for yourself, and question authority.
I knew there had to be something fishy considering the video game industry alone has laid off 30,000 people in the past 2 years - 20,000 last year and a further 10,000 in January and February alone of this year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1175322/video-game-employment/
https://www.wired.com/story/the-video-game-industry-is-just-starting-to-feel-the-impacts-of-2023s-layoffs/
https://www.polygon.com/23964448/video-game-industry-layoffs-crisis-2023
https://publish.obsidian.md/vg-layoffs/Archive/2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/25/business/microsoft-layoffs-video-games.html
https://www.polygon.com/gaming/24074767/video-game-industry-layoffs-explainer
This really illustrates the original problem. One point of view can look at overall statistics and say things are going great while the other point t of view can focus on job instability affecting real people.
Yeah, the things that really stand out to me on this particular example are the quotes from people in the industry saying that it's the worst instability in the industry in the past 15 years (so since the 2008 recession) in an industry know for its lack of job stability (it used to almost be guaranteed that devs would be laid off after a project finished) and that up to 73% of developers say that they've been affected by the layoffs, either being laid off themselves or somebody they know getting laid off like members of their team.
I watch a lady on YouTube who works for Sony who said that the average time to find a new job is 2 months, and that with the number of layoffs it's very likely that many of these developers will never work in the industry again.
It's just another example of the situations like companies bragging about record-breaking profits while an increasing number of people making six-figure salaries are living paycheck to paycheck.
2 months is not all that long to find a new job but yeah.
I’ve had both shorter and longer in the past. However this time I
I would have a real hard time handling that with any disruption of my income. Not quite paycheck to paycheck, but there’s a lot of expenses I haven’t had for most of my life and the cap on unemployment benefits means I wouldn’t come close. Most of these will be gone in less than six years so I just need to not be laid off for that time
P-Hacking?
P-hacking is adjusting your data, but the formulation of the P-value statistic doesn't change.
Here they just straight up changed the recipe.
Thanks for these helpful links, but I don't see any problem with the inflation chart. The claim of lowest in half a century is false either way.
I think I'm just echoing your points, but I wanted to add that 'inflation' or 'CPI' aren't immutable mathematical constructs. The statistics the article is citing have taken on more convenient to the status quo interpretations over time, to the point of being kind of devoid of meaning.
For example, real unemployment having gone up and never really down after every major financial crisis, yet we're being told 'unemployment is at its lowest point ever'.
My favorite is they always treat inflation like a static thing. 2 percent this year means 3 percent last year doesn't matter. You should be happy. But the reality is that's 5 percent inflation versus whatever raise you did, (or didn't) get in the same time period.
3 percent inflation now doesn't erase 10 percent inflation in previous years. We need to be deflating. But that's a dirty word because a lot of important people get their income steam from constant inflation.
They're citing statistics.
YOU have the anecdotal evidence.
I'm sorry shit isn't going so well for you and yes, it sucks to be kept down without much hope. I have been there - under Bush.
But it's really fucking arrogant to say that because YOUR experience sucks the data is false and the press is lying.
There is nothing arrogant about recognizing that your living conditions have regressed over the course of the past 5 years, nor is there anything wrong with basing your decisions around how you percieve things to be.
Its a headline and story that's been being trotted out for 2, almost 3 years. We keep being told the economy is 'booming' and yet the lived experience disagrees. I have the receipts that my live experience isn't lying (they are quite literally grocery receipts). Our money isn't going as far and wages have effectively stagnated since 2019. My power bill is twice what it was; no change in consumption. My grocery bill is also basically twice what it was. Again, no heads added or change in consumption. In fact, we cut out things. A couple of years ago, taking a big trip was totally reasonable. I don't even feel like I can take weekends off any more.
What you've got to start realizing is that their economy is not our economy. No one is giving credit because there is no credit to give. The stock market going up and to the right means jack shit when you can't afford groceries.
I think you’ve really identified to crux of the matter here. The stock market is not the economy. To rich DC insiders, it’s everything, but to the other 99% of us, who gives a shit? Wake me up when we can do insider trading too I guess.
The meteoric rise of a select few chip manufacturers is what’s driving this “strong economy”, btw. How on earth is that considered sustainable economic success?
I think it's the wage growth, lower inflation, and longest sustained low unemployment of my lifetime that drive that economic success.
I do however agree that too much attention is paid to the stock market, and that wage growth isn't high enough.
Well considering wages have remained stagnant since the 1970’s, compared to skyrocketing productivity, I’m inclined to agree!
No no no things are great please stop saying things aren't great have you tried picking up another job? We added a record number of new jobs last quarter, maybe you can help us beat it again!
Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
This article and the Biden team are running real, "Reject the evidence of your eyes and ears" energy here.
Eyes and ears can be subject to propaganda.
Yup, that's it. That's the problem. If only there was data out there about it, like in that other message chain you replied to me on.
There is absolutely something wrong when you decide that your anecdotes trump statistical data, though. That's just flat-out defective and invalid.
Never claimed that it trumps their stats, simply that the character of the economy they describe does not mesh with reality. Kind of tired of the incessant gaslighting, when no significant changes to materially improve our living conditions have materialized.
Ok Mr Obtuse - I’m saying they can cherry pick stats to support their narrative all they want, but at the end of the day material living conditions for the majority of Americans have declined in this time period. Over 62% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck today, and cannot afford an emergency $400 expense. That number is up from 40% pre-pandemic. If you live in a major metro, open your window and look outside to see how the size of tent cities are multiplying. These people simply aren’t counted by the new metrics. How is this the strongest economy we’ve ever seen?
See, now those are statistics! That's a very different -- and much more sound -- argument than you were making before.
your personal reality is the only perspective/experience, which everyone experiences, ergo that reality is right and trumps their stats
ill give you a personal experience. in the last decade in the UK I have made significant gains in my personal income. While living in a crumbling country determined to get everyone into poverty. My reality is good and comfortable but that is not the vast majority of “reality” as a whole. Im an outlier. As are you, in comparison to the stats.
But which statistics?
The 1980 ones?
The 1990 ones?
The 2010 ones?
The ones I have in my budgeting software?
Should I believe ones I can make using my costco receipts or the ones whoever on the whatever show on MSNBC is repeating? What statistics we calculate, how we choose to include or exclude data in their formulation, and what we interpret them to mean are all subjective. Is it any more or less subjective than my lived experience?
You are being obtuse about how people make real decisions about their lives. They don't and shouldn't' base them on statistics because the world is varied and not monolithic in experience. Experience and memory are a form of data, if not a great one. Experience always trumps statistics. People aren't' going to be making their decision in November based on statistics. They'll be making them based on their lived experience.
That's not data that gives us information on standard of living or affordability though. They keep telling you about oranges and saying it means something about apples.
Here's Gallup actually asking the people and not an economist quoting the most generalized of statistics to cover up real conditions on the ground. It is entirely possible for the economy to grow, for unemployment to drop, and inflation to be less, while the working class is evicted en masse.
Thank you, that's helpful information! And not at all surprising, as those nearest the bottom are usually the last to feel relief from economic downturns.
I think a lot of what helped us rebuild the economy is that during covid a ton of people completed their education and were ready to move up. Those who weren't able to do that are still suffering and left behind to an extent.
Yeah. But the problem here is the Biden campaign cannot fathom why their messaging is making people mad. And of course they're going to be mad if they're still hurting and he refuses to believe it.
What are they supposed to do? They improved the economy. People refuse to believe it.
I'll give you a moment to rage.
Okay, now that's done, consider it from their perspective. The data tells them they have succeeded. People refuse to believe it. What are they supposed to do? Succeed again? People will just reject it again.
I wouldn't be surprised if they just did a heel turn and said, welp, guess who isn't a bunch of ungrateful fucks? Wealthy people. Tax cuts ahoy! Found a new voter base!
I refuse to believe they are that dense. The first thing you learn in economics class is that the top level statistics like GDP, Unemployment, Median Wage, and Inflation are too broad to tell the whole story. That's why we have the surveys. When the top level numbers are good and people are still complaining it's not just PR or ungratefulness. There's really something wrong. And at the end of the day if things are normal, then you're losing the messaging battle. These guys are completely detached from reality in one way or another. But considering the survey results I'm pretty sure it's actually hard to put a monthly budget together for 63% of Americans right now.
This is it. Facts don't matter, only perception. We're in a post-truth era.
Maybe.... just maybe..... the numbers about the economy arent true.
But surely the govt and fed wouldnt lie to us?
Nah they're true. They just aren't numbers that describe the working class. They describe things as a whole with no regard for the parts.
No, it's just status quo to say the mainstream media is lying. The fuck have you been? They've done nothing but suck rich nobs off for the past three decades.
How do you think Trump got all that free press? It wasn't ONLY because he's a charismatic asshole.
Shop at costco. Groceries are expensive because grocery chains are padding their profit margins. For example: Ham for sandwiches is $2.99 a pound at costco, $10.99 a pound at Kroger/Publix. And the costco ham is real.
Publix made $4.3 billion in profit in 2023 - about $3m per store, up 48% from 2022. Kroger’s net profit margin is up 53% year on year.
100% agree. Costco makes most of their profit (more than 50%) from membership fees. The membership fees really are not that high.
The price you're paying for the stuff you find on the shelves is really very very close to what it costs them to put it on the shelves.
In some places they did just get big pay raises for minimum wage workers. Too bad that was the previous amount needed and COVID/Greed inflation pushed the amount needed well above what they got raises for.
Did you read the article which had citations saying it's the complete opposite of that?
The opposite of what? I did read the article but if you want to reference it then quote it so we know what you're talking about. The only relevant section I remember from the top of my head was something like, "pay raises resulted in higher wages even after taking inflation into account."
But that's some really fun weasel wording. If I'm making 2 more dollars an hour in real terms, but I'm still 8 Dollars below affording a place to live it doesn't really help me does it? We've been trying to get a 15 dollar minimum wage for over a decade. What's the effective increase since then? What's the new number we actually need? Where I live that's 25 dollars an hour now. So getting 15 dollars finally isn't helping.
There are a bunch of states where minimum wage is now over $15/hour. My area has a shortage of workers for low pay jobs so pretty much everywhere is starting closer to $20. That’s still not a lot but certainly a huge increase
Imo this is the heart of the problem. The economy is getting better for poor people. But middle class people complain the loudest. And middle class people don't interact with poor people, so they don't see any improvement.
I think this is where Biden messed up. Helping the poor is the right thing to do, but politicians have ignored the poor for generations for a reason: the middle class is what wins or loses elections. You need to keep the middle class happy. The middle class owns the social media airwaves. The poor have no voice.