Ukraine

It’s all fucked.

Russia fucks around until someone deems them worthy of finding out. Sure, it seems fun when U.S. pilots are cranking up the AC/DC and doing their hero walk on the way to wipe every single Russian airbase and fuel depot off the map, but then half of the west’s water systems, electrical grids, and networking infrastructure gets hacked and severely damaged/bricked. Russia gets hacked and grinds to a standstill. China takes advantage of the chaos and invades Taiwan. The U.S. bombs the chip fabs in Taiwan into powder, and anti-satellite operations trigger the Kessler syndrome. Maybe some of the other regional conflicts pop off, too.

The bright side is that assuming no nukes fly, we’ll see earth’s habitability improve for a while, once people starve and consumption/ability to produce goes way down.