Asklemmy

February 24, 2014. The residents of Crimea wake up to find soldiers all over their peninsula. They wear no insignia, refuse to answer any questions about who they are or what they want. But they speak with Russian accents. The Ukrainian military, leaderless, stripped to the bone by Yanukovych's corruption, can't do anything but watch.

Within a few weeks, "referendums" are held under the watchful eye of these mysterious men with machine guns. Crimea "votes" to join the Russian federation with 98%+ of the vote.

Four months after that, as Ukraine is gearing up to hold presidential elections to replace Yanukovych, pro-Russian "separatists" suddenly pop up in most Eastern and Southern Ukrainian oblasts, seizing control of government buildings and demanding their regions be annexed by Russia. And I'm sure the fact that these "Ukrainian separatists" all had Russian accents, and many just happened to look exactly like known FSB officers who'd "mysteriously" quit just a few days before was a total coincidence, too!

Fortunately, they're prevented from seizing power in most oblasts. Unfortunately, that's when Russian "volunteers" "on vacation" roll over the border in the Donbass with tanks they "bought at military surplus stores". (Seriously, the Russian government actually tried to claim that in its propaganda!) Again, the Ukrainian army is such a disorganized mess there's nothing it can do.

Fortunately, this time people know what's going on, so volunteer militias form to push back the invaders. (As you might expect, there was precisely zero oversight or vetting of these militias for the first few years, so some did have some pretty extremist beliefs-- this was the Azov Battalion's origin story, for example. Ukraine's since integrated most into the real army and forced them to at least make a show of abandoning their extremist beliefs; how effective this has been, someone with more knowledge of the situation than me will have to say.)

After months of fighting, the conflict settles into relatively frozen lines. At this point, the EU tries to mediate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, called the Minsk Agreement. The deal is never actually fully implemented, mainly because Russia refused to hold up its side of the bargain. But it does cool the war down to a frozen conflict. Between 2015 and 2021, only a few dozen troops die per year, standing guard on unchanging frontlines.

Ukrainian society obviously doesn't forget or forgive any of this. But gradually, the war drops in importance in people's minds. People's minds turn towards more immediate concerns, like combating corruption, fighting poverty, and joining the EU (which is seen by most Ukrainians as necessary to accomplish the first two goals).

However, in the background, the country is rebuilding its gutted armed forces. In hopes of being good enough to join NATO, sure. But also, you know. Just in case.

And then in February 2022, "just in case" became reality.