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Ohio election shock as Republican district shifts 20 points to Democrats
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2024
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Wait 1 in 10? 20 points, even if it stared at 100% republican would be 1 in 5, more if the county was less then 100%
Let’s assume a 50/50 split of 20 voters to make the math simple, 10 each of R and D.
If 1 in 10 R voters didn’t vote, that would be a 9:10 split, a 47% - 52% split, a 5% difference. If that voter then voted D, it would be a 9:11 split, a 47 - 57% split. To get that 20% split, you’d need a second R voter to change sides for an 8:12 split, which simplifies to 4:6, or a 40% - 60% split, which is a 20 point spread.
According to the math above, you can see that I was wrong by confusing the 20% population of R voters and the 10% of all voters.