Congratulations on how successful your advanced F16 pilot training program has been russia! You have done an exemplary job providing realworld training to Ukrainian F16 pilots for interception iterated over and over again.... even finding room to work in air-to-air chain gun work for them.

Enjoy the fruits of your labor, fools :)

Ooops! There goes another plane russia won't be able to replace for another decade or so at minimum....

The transition from movement to combined-arms maneuver is the essence of the breakthrough. It requires formations that can sustain tempo, absorb friction, and exploit opportunity faster than the defender can respond. During the breakthrough, tempo determines whether a penetration becomes a rupture—forces must expand the breach faster than the enemy can reposition reserves or restore defensive coherence.

Maintaining this tempo requires significant combat power and resources, as sustained pressure overwhelms the enemy’s ability to respond. In the modern context, that role belongs to armored combined-arms formations. Armored formations possess the mobility, layered protection, direct and indirect firepower, and beyond-line-of-sight command and control necessary to operate at depth and tempo. Armored forces are designed to continue the attack, turning local success into operational dislocation.

Infantry forces, meanwhile, play a critical role in the breakthrough. Specifically, these formation types hold the door open, preventing the enemy from closing it and creating a salient in which armored forces become encircled, and ultimately, destroyed. Infantry forces, with joint fires and engineer support, seize key intersections, block cross-mobility corridors, and deny enemy observation from restricted terrain. By doing so, they stabilize the penetration, protect their flanks, and preserve momentum.

When properly concentrated and aligned in time and space, armored and infantry combined-arms formations do more than penetrate—they break through with the required tempo to rupture the enemy’s defense in depth. In doing so, they transform a foothold into a rupture. But rupture alone does not produce decision; it must be exploited before the enemy can recover.

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Many current observers have fallen into the same trap, trying to replicate Ukraine’s success by swapping a Maginot Line for a hyperfocus on mass-producing drones. Drones should not be treated as a stand-alone solution, but as enablers within a larger operational framework. When properly integrated, they extend the formation’s ability to see, strike, and sustain across depth—supporting each phase of the operation rather than defining it.

Counterdrone efforts are also essential for survival on the modern battlefield, reducing exposure and preserving freedom of action under persistent surveillance. But they are not a cure-all; suppressing enemy drones alone will not restore maneuver or reconnect tactical success to strategic decision. Drone-enabled defenses have proven lethal but primarily in static conditions. They excel at denial, not decision. Replicating them while on the move is difficult. Focusing solely on drone warfare alone risks reinforcing the very dynamics that produce stalemate.

If you are wondering what the big fuss about Operation Vivaldi is about well gestures at article there you go. This is being proven and demonstrated in realtime and the details are only beginning to trickle out... which I am NOT meaning to say that a strategic breakthrough has been achieved in russian frontlines, rather Ukraine is proving its chops at being able to sustainably conduct these kinds of armored maneuvers with manned and unmanned platforms that facilitate breaking stalemates decisively.

also see https://mwi.westpoint.edu/autonomy-will-not-automatically-change-how-an-army-brigade-fights-autonomy-at-scale-will/

Today, soldiers largely operate or supervise individual robotic systems. That model will not scale. A brigade cannot add dozens of autonomous systems if each requires another operator, screen, and continuous stream of instructions.

The near-term transition will likely be mixed. Commanders will integrate manned formations with remotely operated and increasingly autonomous ground and aerial systems. Different systems may conduct reconnaissance, carry payloads, move supplies, provide communications relay, or contribute other effects while soldiers and leaders coordinate them as part of the combined arms fight.

Ukraine is beginning to demonstrate what this intermediate stage can look like, even though the systems themselves remain largely remote controlled. In December 2024 near the city of Hlyboke, Ukraine’s Khartiia Brigade used more than fifty aerial and ground unmanned systems to perform different functions as part of a coordinated operation. The systems did not independently replace the combined arms formation; soldiers were still required to secure and hold terrain. The significance was not the autonomy, but the ability to coordinate multiple unmanned capabilities against the same tactical problem.

According to the analysis, this strategy relies on Ukraine’s limited ability to intercept jet-powered drones, along with potential shortages of Patriot air defense interceptors during the winter of 2026–2027.

It also assumes that Ukraine’s energy and critical infrastructure will collapse under relentless pressure in the coming months.

The two things in my opinion that have locked russia into failure here are:

1. Russia clearly sees the future and thus the focus military and economic investment as jet powered flying bombs and cruise missiles (like the vehicle launchable banderol), hyperfocusing on how relative to a cheaper prop powered flying bomb they penetrate air defenses far better... without realizing that they are pushing their production of what was supposed to be a cheap weapon into more and more expensive territory which will require progressively undermining other more generally useful pre-existing military capacities. It is a death spiral, and the reason Ukraine is avoiding it is that Ukraine is infinitely better at hunting down and destroying russian air defenses, which allows them to keep the average cost of their flying bomb much lower while still achieving the same amount of impact.

2. Russia believes it can keep bullshitting it is fighting a landwar while it has essentially switched to primarily focusing on mass scale terror attacks against the Ukrainian population with flying bombs and russia also believes it can keep this facade of an overwhelming land army up long enough until it can secure a political win in de-escalation negotiations... but that assumes that russia can continue to militarily engage on the ground with Ukrainian forces without incurring catastrophic losses on their own integrity that snowball into regional and operational collapse of their frontlines. Putin assumes he can handwave til next spring after the devastation of mass scale terror attacks on Kyiv over the winter... but he is ignoring the Ukrainian army as an active actor and it is a fatal mistake.

This will be the hardest winter of many Ukrainian's lives, I feel solemn for how little my country (the US) has actually helped Ukraine prepare for this winter, but no matter how bad it is, flying bombs coming out of the sky can never take and hold territory and they can never truly impart political leverage. All they can do is deny deny deny deny... but don't confuse that with the idea that russia will inevitably swallow up all of Ukraine sooner or later in this war.

The reason I have been so adamant about helicopters especially the AH-1Z and UH-1Y is that in this precise strategic situation...

According to the analysis, this strategy relies on Ukraine’s limited ability to intercept jet-powered drones, along with potential shortages of Patriot air defense interceptors during the winter of 2026–2027.

...helicopters carrying advanced radar, sensors and targeting capability along with a wide range of cost/sophistication tools to eliminate flying bombs such as 20mm rounds from a chaingun, APKWS rockets or more traditional antiaircraft missiles meant to eliminate fast and lethal jet powered craft that can operate and resupply from improvised and unpredictable positions that are difficult to eliminate in a pre-emptive and precise ballistic missile strike on static airbase infrastructure.... takes a breath.... that can in the wake of a mass flying bomb attack clear the airspace above the scene of an attack and then conduct an evacuation of victims to a safer area/hospital are WHAT UKRAINE NEEDS. Also all of the training for the pilots and associated maintenance crews applies equally well to non-wartime emergency and disaster response contexts so unlike teaching a bunch of kids to mass produce flying bombs instead of educating them in school.... building up a massive roster of human helicopter pilots and technicians is not a dead end at all.

Why did Ukraine turn down the Tiger helicopter then? The Tiger has been plagued with high maintenance costs and low flight to maintenance hours to the point that it just isn't a very good design. The AH-1Z and UH-1Y are on the otherhand designed from the ground up to be able to be genuinely operated out of improvisational and organic positions and keep working without breaking down.

The AH-1Z and UH-1Y are specifically being by the Czech military for c-uas/counter drone security operations around Polish military and airbases. I share this to underscore how I am not talking about theoretical capabilities here, I am talking about established capability in tactics and training.

The Czech Army is also part of the defense shield. Following the September 2025 incursion, Prague deployed a helicopter unit to Poland as part of the reinforcement of the eastern flank. Initially, these were Mi-171Š helicopters, later UH-1Y Venom helicopters, and, beginning in the summer of 2026, AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters equipped with laser-guided APKWS missiles, designed specifically to engage low-flying targets. The unit from the 22nd Air Base in Náměšť nad Oslavou trained in C-UAS mode and underwent the NATO TACEVAL assessment. These rotations involve dozens to around a hundred of soldiers, building on earlier operations in Poland and the Enhanced Forward Presence mandate. Furthermore, in September 2026, Czech JAS-39 Gripen fighters took off from Pardubice at the direction of NATO command to monitor the area near Poland’s eastern border during a Russian drone wave in western Ukraine – intervention was not necessary.

https://www.defensemagazine.com/article/poland-to-allow-faster-decisions-on-shooting-down-suspicious-air-targets

Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps publicized details on the third phase of Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction, which included successfully feinting and deceiving Russian forces and the liberation of Nove, Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Karpivka, and Novomykhailivka (all north of Lyman). Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps Commander Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi reported on September 28 that Ukrainian forces liberated 51 square kilometers of land in the third phase, for a total of 176 square kilometers over Operation Vivaldi’s three announced phases.[1] Biletskyi stated that Ukrainian forces feinted from Shandryholove (northwest of Lyman) toward Zelena Dolyna (northeast of Shandryholove), distracting from Ukraine’s main tactical objective of Nove on the northern flank of the Russian forces in the area.

Biletsky noted that Ukrainian forces used BTR-80 armored personnel carriers (APCs) converted into vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) to break through Russian defenses and destroy Russian heavy fortifications. It is notable that Ukrainian forces were able to field and drive APCs up to heavy Russian fortifications without coming under Russian drone strikes, indicating that Ukrainian forces neutralized or otherwise negated Russian drone defenses. Ukrainian forces conducted extensive shaping operations and an intermediate-range strike campaign to mitigate the threat from Russian drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems and achieve tactical drone overmatch, aiding Ukrainian mechanized advances in the Lyman direction.[2]

Remember the people who told you with absolute confidence that armored maneuver was dead and that drones created a complete departure from traditional mechanized landwarfare.... and pluck them from the rolodex of people you trust the expert opinion of.

This should genuinely scare the shit out of russian generals, the russian military has optimized itself to be a surface area eating into Ukrainian frontlines along the entire boundary, and that is very effective if Ukraine is not moving their focused, mechanized formations in ways that chop stranded and strung out russian light infantry formations into chunks that will surrender in large amounts... which is exactly what is happening.

Take note, the media narrative has leaned into the russian tactic/strategy of small unit infiltration as this inevitable tide with no real good counter to it, but a basic reality here has been ignored that in terms of the flow of logistics, russia's arrangement of forces is critically vulnerable to being chopped into isolated and encircled pockets of infantry with no transportation, supplies, nor idea about what is happening beyond their local unit level.

The large scale surrender of entire russian formations is ideal, especially if the prisoners are internationally seen to be being treated relatively humanely... the critical element of russian/human desire to fight reveals existential cracks when individual russian soldiers (or mercenaries from another country fooled into fighting on the front lines) begin realizing they have the agency to surrender and stop fighting. Russia can firehose propaganda but the reality just requires continually showing the conditions of surrendered russian soldiers where they look like their bodies are in ok shape and they are fine.. and yes russia can say that is AI blah blah blah but the truth is easy to document exhaustively....

Another thing, while it is understandable how scary unmanned weapons of war are, they also provide the opportunity in clearing operations to go in first before Ukrainian infantry, and this makes de-escalation far easier as the first person to step around the corner can be a robot... and it can be shot by accident by a russian who mistakes the command of their leader who is trying to get them to surrender... and instead of the building having a 155mm artillery shell landed on it killing them all in response they can regain communication and all coordinate surrendering in a way that doesn't set off the powder keg. Additionally there is little glory to going out guns blazing in one last surprise ambush if all you can ambush is a goofy looking robot that nobody will really care about losing. This might seem like a weird point, but this is the kind of thing that happens all the time in tense situations with people with guns and robots provide a serious human capability to make that interaction less chaotic and likely to get Ukrainian soldiers or russians trying to surrender killed.

Clearing operations are the most dangerous job for soldiers and Ukraine's extensive use of unmanned vehicles is already saving many lives.

https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-september-29-2026

The Council has adopted restrictive measures against a further 10 individuals and 17 entities responsible for the systematic unlawful deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation and within temporarily occupied territories.

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As the Kremlin prepares to mobilise, Ukraine’s drone chief vows to ramp up Russian casualties

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The SBU has blocked over 50 fake online resources imitating its branding as Russian operatives intensify cyber attacks and data-harvesting schemes.

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Carrier drones deploy explosive unmanned vehicles behind enemy lines, recovering 48 square miles of occupied Ukraine

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Some robots built to rescue injured Ukrainian soldiers in battle can drive much faster to outrun Russian drones, but high speeds can cause problems.

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Fire rages at plant as Moscow’s forces continue bombardment of Kyiv and other cities

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Ukrainian air defenses are intercepting 57% of jet-powered drones and 70% of all drones used during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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Russian attacks since 2026 damaged 500,000 sq meters of warehouse space and cut Ukraine’s monthly exports, with over $2 billion in potential losses.

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Russia continues to relocate Ukrainian children; however, compared to the early years of the full-scale war, it is employing different mechanisms, specifically, transfer to camps, sending children to Russia for "education," separation from parents during "filtration" procedures, and the appointment of Russian guardians, according to Maksym Maksymov, head of the presidential initiative Bring Kids Back UA.

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Most importantly, Ukraine is not a test range. It is a sovereign European country defending itself, and the consequences of design and support decisions are immediate. That creates a higher standard: build for repeated operation, recovery, repair, continual adaptation, and return to service under pressure.

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The central lesson is that navigation and communications cannot be treated as guaranteed resources. Development must consider how the complete system, including the aircraft, mission equipment, software, procedures and operator, functions when conditions are degraded or rapidly changing.

Ground drones, tracked or wheeled platforms designed to carry heavy loads, are much quieter on the battlefield, the battalion commander said.

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Ukraine just angered another partner — one sitting on an arsenal of weapons that Kyiv wants.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Sept. 23 announcement at the U.N. General Assembly that Ukraine’s two North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) were sent to South Korea was not well received in Seoul.

"It was appropriate in every aspect not to disclose, considering the many problems it may cause when disclosed, and (we) had agreed to do so," South Korean President Lee Jae Myung responded, claiming that Kyiv

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STEVE'S READING RUSSIA - RUSSIAN PRESS REVIEW (28.09.26)Today one Russian newspaper writes: “The parliamentary elections are over. The time has come for unpo...

Invidious

Novynskyi received citizenship through a provision allowing Serbia to naturalize a foreign national under an expedited procedure when authorities determine that doing so is in the country’s interest.

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