this post was submitted on 21 Aug 2024
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Ukraine attacked Moscow on Wednesday with at least 11 drones that were shot down by air defences in what Russian officials called one of the biggest drone strikes on the capital since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

The war, largely a grinding artillery and drone battle across the fields, forests and villages of eastern Ukraine, escalated on Aug. 6 when Ukraine sent thousands of soldiers over the border into Russia's western Kursk region.

For months, Ukraine has also fought an increasingly damaging drone war against the refineries and airfields of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, though major drone attacks on the Moscow region - with a population of over 21 million - have been rarer.

Russia's defence ministry said its air defences destroyed a total of 45 drones over Russian territory, including 11 over the Moscow region, 23 over the border region of Bryansk, six over the Belgorod region, three over the Kaluga region and two over the Kursk region.

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[–] John@discuss.tchncs.de 57 points 3 months ago (1 children)

"The war, ... , escalated on Aug. 6 when Ukraine sent thousands of soldiers over the border into Russia's western Kursk region." Victim blaming? Sounds like the old "if Ukraine would stop fighting the war could be over"

[–] Omniraptor@lemm.ee 31 points 3 months ago (1 children)

It seems like a pretty neutral phrasing to me. Like, the allies landing in Normandy was also an escalation. Doesn't necessarily mean it was a bad thing

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[–] ravhall@discuss.online 52 points 3 months ago (10 children)

With all this drone usage, why aren’t we seeing more smaller drone operations deeper into Russia? This seems like the perfect opportunity for a movie-like secret mission with a bag full of consumer drones strapped with explosives. A low flying drone swam can’t be that difficult to execute. Heck, they do it at Disneyland.

[–] Dremor@lemmy.world 72 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Problem is distance and autonomy.

You can't really command drones that far, they are programed with the coordinates, then launched. And to go far, you need to have more fuel, thus a heavier drone, which in turn will be easier to detect and target for AA systems.

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[–] circuscritic@lemmy.ca 47 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (12 children)

I think you're vastly overestimating the damage possible from the explosive payload a tiny quadcopter can carry, unless your goal is strictly terrorism i.e. intentionally targeting civilians.

Civilians dying as collateral damage during an attack/assignation of a legitimate military target is one thing, targeting civilians is another.

And before you say Russia does, don't forget that Ukraine is dependent upon continued Western support, which is already fragile. It's doubtful that support would survive them explicitly targeting civilians with suicide drones deep inside Russia.

[–] ravhall@discuss.online 12 points 3 months ago

I did not mean civilian deaths.

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[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 21 points 3 months ago (3 children)

I'm surprised at how little we're hearing about any covert actions by either side, since there are significant numbers of Ukrainians in Russia and vice versa. When the war started, I expected that there would be fairly frequent acts of sabotage in both countries. There is periodically news of saboteurs caught in Ukraine before accomplishing anything dramatic, and I don't follow Russian news closely enough to know whether they have made credible claims of catching Ukrainian saboteurs. The truck bomb on the Kerch bridge is the major exception.

[–] circuscritic@lemmy.ca 18 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Acts of sabotage have been happening this entire time, whether or not they're getting covered.

Ukraine has also been running a covert targeted assassination program, which unfortunately got some press coverage some months back due to their legally and morally questionable approach to target selection.

But, it's an existential war for their survival, so I'm not going to moralize about it.

[–] superkret@feddit.org 10 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Didn't you read any of the news of fire breaking out in munitions factories and manufacturing plants all over Russia? Or the memes about Ivan carelessly smoking at work?

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Most of the smoking memes were about ammo depots hit by HIMARS, not sabotage. The fires at factories may have been sabotage (although I expect that the base rate of fires at Russian factories is fairly high) but they seem like the sort of thing a Ukrainian sympathizer acting alone might do rather than something coordinated by Ukraine. I suppose I was expecting bigger explosions, so to speak.

[–] Hazzia@infosec.pub 5 points 3 months ago

So probably either Russia hasn't caught any yet, or they think that admitting Ukraine was able to sabotage or come close to sabotaging anything makes Russia look too "weak" so they just blame it on their own incompetence again

[–] ralphio@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago

The most high value targets are probably close to the actual battle lines. The oil refineries are also decently high value, but they don't need to go deep into Russia to disrupt that.

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[–] Cryan24@lemmy.world 37 points 3 months ago

Presumably, the small numbers were a tactic to locate Moscows air defences.

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 33 points 3 months ago (3 children)

Do it again. And again. And again.

Wear down the population

[–] Archelon@lemmy.world 100 points 3 months ago (22 children)

Strategic bombing of a civilian population has only ever hardened that population’s resolve.

Bombing Moscow or any other city would only increase support for the regime.

Now, industrial targets that Putin’s cronies make their rubles running? Much more likely to have an impact.

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 48 points 3 months ago

That is what they are doing. I should have structured my post better. Keep striking military targets and the oil and gas infrastructure. Keep the pressure on the regime and bleed the oligarchs pocketbooks dry.

[–] dan1101@lemm.ee 31 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Are they bombing civilian targets in Moscow or strategic targets?

[–] intensely_human@lemm.ee 6 points 3 months ago

The drones are now precise enough to target hearts and minds, leaving most of the body intact to be taken over by other drones

[–] awesome_lowlander@lemmy.dbzer0.com 12 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Honest question, how does this mesh with sieges of cities in earlier periods of history? When cities would surrender because of sieges. What are the differences?

[–] redhorsejacket@lemmy.world 13 points 3 months ago (8 children)

Also, to add to the other poster's point, in a medieval siege, the defenders have every reason to believe the attackers will happily let every man, woman, and child behind the walls die gruesome deaths to starvatiom or disease. That's why, when it came down to the wire, cities would submit.

In modern times, cultivating a believable military posture of, "Surrender, or we will personally execute every last motherfucking one of you" is politically dicey. Look at the news stories coming out of Gaza about supplies running low thanks to Israeli interference. Right, wrong , or indifferent, the international community (as well as your domestic community, if those that disagree with these sorts of tactics are allowed to make their voices heard) tends to look down their noses at targeting noncombatants populations. So, due to these complications (which were largely absent or less impactful from warfare in the time of Genghis Khan) wholesale slaughter of civilian life isn't really openly used. In fact, guidelines like "proportionality" are invented which dictate the level of response you can give certain provocations and what not.

So, if you're a modern day commander being tasked with taking an urban center, the closest way to approximate a medieval siege would be to absolutely carpet bomb everything. Make it known that you will happily let every single person in Moscow die, if not send them to the afterlife yourself. While you're bombing the suburbs, you'll also need to encirce the whole city to prevent supplies from being delivered, since you can't guarantee every bomb will hit it's target and need starvation to provide additional assurance to the population that, if they maintain their current course, they are doomed.

Unfortunately, the world isn't going to allow that, and you know it, so you commit to the level of bombing deemed acceptable by the world at large. At best, you wind up in a situation like London during the Blitz. Your bombing runs are effective, in that they disrupt the daily life of citizenry, and cause some infrastructure damage and loss of life. However, you're never going to be allowed to scale up to the point where your victims feel they have no way out but to submit. There's enough plausible deniability that, even when a bomb hits close to home (literally or figuratively), the victim is more pissed at the bomber than their government.

Enemy resolve is such an important and yet tricky factor.

A big part of the reason the US failed in Vietnam, despite having an overwhelming military advantage, was an unwillingness by the US to just burn the whole country to the ground, and the attitude of the NVA and VietCong being that they would either win or die trying. Bombing campaign after bombing campaign didn't change that.

I doubt the Russians have the same resolve. Especially since they're the demoralized aggressor at this point. Ukraine has to work very carefully to achieve their strategic objectives without Galvanizing the Russian population. Quitting has to feel like a better option than fighting back.

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[–] VindictiveJudge@lemmy.world 5 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Ye olde sieges cut off supply lines and forced the defenders to subsist on rations. Once those started running low, they started starving. Eventually the options were starve to death or surrender. These sieges frequently lasted months and sometimes years. Given travel times, it could also be weeks before anyone realized something was wrong and mobilized a force to break the siege.

Ukraine can only do infrequent drone raids. In order to properly siege Moscow, they would need to lock down all ways in and out of the city, and keep it that way for months, possibly longer given modern food preservation techniques and the viability of backyard farming. Additionally, sieging a city no longer prevents the people from communicating with the outside world, meaning other Russian forces would respond in days.

I suppose there's also little reason to siege cities nowadays, given that city walls for defense are no longer a thing.

[–] Hossenfeffer@feddit.uk 4 points 3 months ago

The most successful besiegers were probably the Romans. It wasn't so much the act of laying siege that caused cities to surrender, it was the utter, uncompromising determination of the Romans to see the siege through to the end, and the atrocities they would commit on the surrendering population that made them so successful. Surrender immediately and you don't get enslaved or butchered... hold out and things will go very, very badly.

I don't recall all the details but there was one siege in western Europe where the mayor of the town declared 'you won't take us: we have supplies for four years in our store houses' to which the Roman commander replied 'then we'll take you on the fifth year.'

Or take Masada, a supposedly impregnable fortress built on a mountaintop. First the Romans built walls all the way around it, both to contain the Jewish 'rebels' but also to protect the Roman siegeworks from any potential rescue force. Then they just built a ramp. A massive, massive ramp, that reached all the way up to the fortress walls (which weren't that strong because who builds a strong wall when your fortress is perched on top of a mountain?). Then they wheeled up some siege engines, smashed their way through the walls and discovered most of the inhabitants had commited suicide rather than face capture.

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[–] Hossenfeffer@feddit.uk 5 points 3 months ago (3 children)

Strategic bombing of a civilian population has only ever hardened that population’s resolve.

Are you including Hiroshima and Nagasaki in that?

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[–] Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 19 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Why aren't we just sending them millions of small drones instead of all the bigger stuff?

[–] sin_free_for_00_days@sopuli.xyz 18 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Because the drones are made in China and China wants Russia to genocide so that they can get away with their genocides. It would be nice if we started manufacturing again, but we seem to have trouble getting anything done.

[–] absentbird@lemm.ee 8 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (4 children)

I don't really want us to get any further into the murder-drone business than we already are, but it does seem to be the way conflicts are going.

Maybe war could just become entirely drones, so instead of people dying it could be a giant game of BattleBots.

[–] sin_free_for_00_days@sopuli.xyz 11 points 3 months ago (3 children)

I think it was Neal Stephenson's book The Diamond Age that had clouds of nanomachines constantly at war with each other creating a fog of dead and dying machines that people would just walk through pretty much ignoring it. I read that a long freaking time ago, so I'm sure that memory is, to some degree, degraded.

[–] wraithcoop@lemmy.one 5 points 3 months ago

Yeah, that's pretty much it exactly. Great book, oddly enough that is pretty much world building but not greatly part of the story.

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[–] ExFed@lemm.ee 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

We are!

Organisers of the Army of Drones campaign say they have built or purchased an extra 3,300 drones. Some 400 people have even sent their own hobby drones in the mail.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65389215

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[–] Redex68@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Drones aren't the be-all and end-all, especially at this stage in the war. They can cause a lot of damage but countermeasures are being used more and more and you can't win a war with just drones.

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[–] Soleos@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Ukraine is doing fine building their own drones. They seem to have a fast iteration cycle with their growing drone industry. Their priority for foreign aid is artillery shells, missile systems, and vehicles/planes which is harder for them to produce en mass

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[–] raker@lemmy.world 17 points 3 months ago

War is already the escalation.

[–] ristoril_zip@lemmy.zip 16 points 3 months ago

Слава Україні!

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 13 points 3 months ago (6 children)

But were the drones shot down or "shot down"?

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