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I will not believe it until it happens. Just like Texas. But if she does win, I am willing to bet it comes along with additional house seats.
in 2020 republicans went hard after the cuban vote. wonder how that'a going this time.
I live in Miami and i hate to report that it's going swimmingly well for the GOP. There's a culture down here that anything even looking like it might be confused with a leftist policy is immediately labeled COMMUNIST and hated with incessant fervor. No one dares be seen as a Castro-fellating leftist scumbag so they're constantly virtue signaling how republican they are. Same with anything the Catholic church doesn't like as there are lots of Catholics here and they vote as they're told. The result is you're as likely to see a Trump sign in a million dollar yard as a broke-ass apartment complex. Spanish-language talk radio here is so far to the right it wants to harvest the poor for their organs and bone marrow.
If Florida goes for Harris I will be legitimately amazed. Thrilled, no doubt, but amazed.
Holy fuck. If she takes Florida and Texas?
God damn. It will be a mandate from the people lmao.
#VOTE!
Both abortion and legal weed are on the ballot in FL, so expect a larger than normal turnout.
Pretty big deal if it holds up another week or two.
Note however, that NS does not have them as being this close:
*Checking the other results in FL, this is a bit of a fever dream. Only engage with it if you haven't had some time for self-care this morning.
Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point
A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.
Here is FL 2020:
Dem's face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.
R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.
That's assuming the polling error goes the same way. That's not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling
Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance
You should base it on the data we have. The data we have says the polling bias for FL leans +3-4 for Republicans.
You dont get to just "wish" it were some other way and base expectations around that.
Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%
Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it
My point is that you cannot be certain about it
Yeah and thats not really a point. Everything has uncertainty. We have to and do make judgements in the face of uncertainty of reality all the time.
If you choose to live in a fact based reality rather, this is the thing we have.
That's not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can't be sure?
declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist
You just lack reading comprehension.
The quote is:
best most recent structural bias measurement
The previous comments said, "the best most recent estimate of structural bias", which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I've seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.
I get it. You've got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.
My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful
Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year
No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to
Is the cocoon warm?
Also keep in mind the electoral college gives a significant percentage to Republicans
We're not talking about national polling, however
I think she’s got a fair chance of winning FLA, but if she does, it means she’s already won most of the swing states, so there’s not much point in investing the massive amount of cash it would take to win. But, like Iowa and Alaska, the fact that it’s this close is a very encouraging sign.
That's not how that works. It's entirely possible she wins Florida and loses Michigan for example.
Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She's not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.
She's improved her postilion in FL. She's not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now "break even".
Plus it needs to be a massive number to overcome the, "This was clearly altered we are not certifying send it to the supreme court"
Less because that would stop a refusal to certify, and more because it might be able to kick the Republican SC members into choosing to not hand it to the GoP in fear of retalitation
Can't remove them from the court. CAN shoot them
We need the swing state victories to be out of the range of recount, and not GA. GA is automatic smoke bomb/ recount. Write that one off.
So you need AZ at greater than a half point. You are trusting your election board in NC. PA is also half a point.
And yeah you've got the crux of it. We need two+ to keep it out of the hands of the SC.
Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020
? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%
Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
You can go check the exact sources. I think Kamala is down in FL -2, -3? Depends on your source and poll aggregator. Biden was up ~+3 ~+4. Final result was -4? So call it a 6-7 point structural bias. Doesn't diminish my point.
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
Yeah thats just self delusion. You clearly have a specific confirmation bias your working to attend to. You shouldn't delude yourself and others because reality is difficult and shitty. We only hurt yourself when we live in fantasy.
Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would've thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It's not limited to 2012 either
Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn't fully knowable until only after the election happens
Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.
I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren't better off living in a state of self delusion.
An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn't declare anything about it's direction or even that it couldn't be the same as it was earlier
This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time
Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year
The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did all sorts of dodgy things in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/
I'm just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don't have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn't change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you've created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the "happy chemicals" for a very long time.
Guys. Polls don't predict the winner. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/12/obama-poll-blow-romney-florida
Everybody talks about Florida man and forgets Florida woman.
...this has given rise to the foolish opinion among people that there are no floridawomen, and that the floridamen grow out of methlabs! Which is of course ridiculous
Anything to send the orange turd packing.
They're a alot of legal sh*t going on in Florida
It’s my birthday in November. Please, please, all I want this year is Florida. Shove any physical gifts you were going to give me straight into DeSantis’s colon. I hope they’re large and pointy.
Remember: to pass the abortion ammendment they need 60%. If it passes, no way Harris doesn't get 50%.
The former president leads the vice president by just two percentage points in the Sunshine State
If Harris wins FL then Trump should be reminded every single day that his pride and joy, Mar-a-Lago, resides in a blue state. Maybe it’ll make him sell & move to Arkansas…
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/florida-trump-toss-up-state-harris-b2624445.html