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Nate silver,
A man who gained his fame through truly superhuman statistical analyzes of sports events,
For some fucking reason, decided to go balls deep into politics and has been an absolute utter fucking failure ever since. 0% accuracy.
I have absolutely no interest in hearing anything this dipshit has to say about politics.
Give me a prediction on next year's March madness brackets, Nate. Stay in your fucking lane. Politics != Sports.
2008
Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, missing only the prediction for Indiana.
2010
His 2010 congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in 2008, but were still within the reported confidence interval. Silver predicted a Republican pickup of 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36.[71]
2012
At the conclusion of that day, when Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver's model had correctly predicted the winner of every one of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.[79][80] Silver, along with at least three[81] academic-based analysts—Drew Linzer,[82] Simon Jackman,[83] and Josh Putnam[84]—who also aggregated pollsfrom multiple pollsters—thus was not only broadly correct about the election outcome, but also specifically predicted the outcomes for the nine swing states.[85]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
I'd list others but I doubt you'd read it anyway
🙄
I think the youth call what you're doing "glizzy" or something?
Nate Silver’s Political Prediction Misses:
Nate Silver’s Sports Prediction Successes:
You wanna keep going tit for tat, homie? It won't shake out in your favor. Let's see you show me some sports failures. I'll keep showing you successes.
You keep showing me political successes. I'll keep showing you failures.
Let's see who burns out first.
Ask his wife or kids. Or just check their social media.
The dude is talented. Not in politics.
Weirdly antagonistic tone and not sure when Silver pissed in your Wheaties, but you obviously have a hang up about him. No desire to go tit for tat, other than to say he's been more reliably accurate over time than anyone else when it comes to politics. It's like baseball - if you lifetime hit for .300, everyone is going to know your name.
Also, the whole point of the article is that early voting patterns are not indicative of final results. That's not polling analysis or data modeling, that's just historical fact. I don't think Silver is perfect, and he's got problematic issues, but on this point he's just pointing out the thing the media ignores because it gives them headlines galore for the last two weeks before the election.
Weirdly antagonistic tone...
Not weirdly antagonistic at all when you quite literally challenged me.
I'd list others but I doubt you'd read it anyway
You are the antagonizer. Eat a cumsock.
I see you decided to step down from your antagonization you literally asked for:
I'd list others but I doubt you'd read it anyway
Which was a wise move on a plaintext debate platform since you know you're 100% out of steam.
Have a good night Holmes.
Edit: to be perfectly clear here...
You mean the guy that profits off it being a close race wants me to think it's a close race?
What an odd take, and so orthogonal to what the article was about.
I don't know what this has to do with birds.
That would be "ornithological" :)
No, that's the tooth doctor.
No offense but wtf Nate? Why would you use 2016 data when early voting was massively expanded since 2020?
He literally talks about that at several points. 2020 is a horrible baseline for looking at anything analytically because it was such an outlier because of COVID. Too many other variables in 2020 for it to be applicable for anything
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