this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2024

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China’s EV sales set to overtake traditional cars years ahead of west | Volumes forecast to rise 20% next year, smashing international projections and Beijing’s official targets (www.ft.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net

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[–] Tobberone@lemm.ee 9 points 1 week ago (1 children)

12mn new EVs? With 92mn cars sold world wide each year, that is a huge number for the oil companies to swallow. It will bring oil prices down, tanking production outside OPEC due to costs of production. That will be a hard economic blow against the oil producing nations.

While they are at it, they are clearing a geoplitical energy dependance on foreign nations. Brilliant move. EU tries to follow with fit for 55, but will it be enough? Being oil dependent, either as buyer or seller, will end up sitting with the short straw unless acted upon now.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The EU has emissions regulation in place forcing 37.5% EVs starting next year(so in a couple days). If that survives the current onslaught of manufacturers and the oil industry, then the EU is probably going to be fine.

However looking at what the US did to Venezuela, Iran and Russia in terms of oil exports, I am not sure that OPEC production is save.

[–] Tobberone@lemm.ee 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Well, we better be, because if the demand for oil isn't high enough to keep the oil infrastructure up and running, the flip will be sudden, swift and without pardon. Norway is already at 90+% of new cars EV. How long will the gas stations be able to survive? On the day the last one dies, I want to be driving an electric car.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The first big thing to go will be refineries. They can only lower production by 20% of capacity. The number of refineries is rather low.

[–] Tobberone@lemm.ee 2 points 1 week ago

How interesting. And it seems it has already begun:

According to forecasts by Commodity Insights, refinery utilization rates will drop from around 84% in 2024 to 81% in 2027 as refiners adjust to a weaker margin environment, accelerating closures through 2029-2030.

Close to 1 million b/d could be shuttered over 2029-2030, according to Commodity Insights forecasts, more than double the 473,000 b/d after the financial crisis (2007-2009) and well above the 656,000 b/d closed due to Covid-19 pressures (2019-2021).

Germany and France, meanwhile, are another million electric cars not favouring the oil companies. Just China and Europe and already that is 15% of world demand for gas cars.

Heavy transport and farming will take longer, but the push for electrification in transport is real.

[–] Sir_Kevin@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 points 1 week ago

Well of course it is. The american government is doing everything in it's power to destroy the EV industry outside of Tesla (and that's only due to significant bribes). They're keeping EV's as unobtainable and expensive to own and drive as possible.

Meanwhile the rest of the world, including China is moving forward with progress.

[–] sirico@feddit.uk 8 points 1 week ago

I think most Western countries should push deadlines back another 5 years again and pander to the likes of VW that'll sort it

[–] darkfiremp3@beehaw.org 5 points 1 week ago

China is subsidizing EVs and charging more for gas car registration vs EV, that puts a big thumb on the cake for EVs.

[–] zante@slrpnk.net 0 points 1 week ago (1 children)

This will be a clever trick to land, since everyone else is writing about dwindling consumer confidence, real estate correction, and debt in local government .

https://www.omfif.org/2024/08/how-deeply-rooted-are-chinas-economic-woes/

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

everyone else is writing about dwindling consumer confidence, real estate correction, and debt in local government

Incidentally "everyone" in this case is

https://www.omfif.org/about/

an independent think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment, providing a neutral platform for public and private sector engagement worldwide. With teams in London and the US, OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators and treasuries.

The OMFIF advisory network actively participates in these activities and is chaired by Lord Meghnad Desai, emeritus professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Some British Business Geniuses.

Please tell me all about how they're managing their own economy, atm.

[–] zante@slrpnk.net 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Not sure if you’re trying to be funny, but select Omfif fairly randomly and because the used Chinas own data.

I simply point out there are number and conflicting reports about what’s going on with that Chinese economy.

Indeed, the FT who now write about this EV miracle, have previously written at length about issues, and government stimulus thereof

https://www.ft.com/content/bae8f56b-d2f2-489f-b0cb-8ccc384c40d2

https://www.ft.com/content/ff4243bb-1367-4348-9350-d848418c4418

if you’re unable to parse different and sometime conflicting sources and be interested in what’s happening within china’s economy, and instead are reliant on YouTube slop and gimmicks, maybe you’d be more at home on twitter or something like that ?

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

if you’re unable to parse different and sometime conflicting sources and be interested in what’s happening within china’s economy, and instead are reliant on YouTube slop and gimmicks, maybe you’d be more at home on twitter or something like that ?

Simply flipping through a stack of newspapers and searching for meaning, without consulting the raw metrics of the countries you are analyzing, is worth about as much as reading the tea leaves at the bottom of your cup. To wit:

the FT who now write about this EV miracle, have previously written at length about issues, and government stimulus thereof

Neoliberal publication of record predicts bad things will come from state actors stimulating/regulating their economy is a record I've been hearing played since the 1960s. If you took these predictions at face value, the Chinese economy shouldn't have running water much less cutting edge chip fabrication and a nascent airline industry.

At some point, you're forced to question the ideology behind the publishers, rather than just nodding along at the Business Oracles while they read from a pile of chicken entrails.

[–] WalnutLum@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 week ago

Western economists are historically bad at predicting Asian markets.

The media reporting on China mirrors the same bad predictions as when Japan was emerging as the number two economy during their own economic miracle.