US push to end Ukraine war
I see someone is afraid of losing their press accreditation to the White House.
this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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The package, which the people said was endorsed by ambassadors from all the EU’s 27 countries on Wednesday morning
How did they get Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria to agree?
Does "endorsed by ambassadors" mean that it will take effect, or could their national governments intervene?
Assuming it reflects the national positions, i would assume that Russia is not delivering on promises to keep these countries happy with taking a more Russia friendly position, while the looming expansion of Russian control up to their own borders in the case of Ukraine capitulating does give them some colder feet.
Oh well,
Hungary negotiated exemptions for Moscow Patriarch Kirill and domestic use of Russian oil products during talks on the EU's 16th package of sanctions, a Hungarian government spokesperson said on Feb. 19.
The statement came after EU ambassadors agreed on the next package of sanctions imposed against Russia, targeting aluminum trade and Moscow's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers.
"These exemptions allow MOL to use refined Russian oil products domestically, remove maintenance equipment for the Druzhba pipeline from sanctions, and ensure Budapest’s metro system can continue receiving necessary servicing and repairs," spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said on X.
https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-says-it-negotiated-exemptions-for-patriarch-kirill
More sanctions sounds good but what can they truely accomplish? The Russians have big friends like China who will buy their stuff instead and potentially the US soon too.
Imo, the only thing that will send a message thar the EU means business is some kind of concrete security guarantee to the Ukrainians. Maybe they can conjure something but will it be sustainable given Europe's economic issues and will people in EU countries be willing to stick their necks out for Ukraine? I'm more positive on the first point but I get the vibe I get is Europeans don't want to support Ukraine in the only way Putin understands
You are right, but it lowers the prices for Russia, and takes away a hughe market to put Russian money into. There is a reason the oligarchs send their kids to British schools and buy property in Bavaria. Europe is stable and has a stronger rule of law compared to regions now available to them.
Getting rid of the sanctions will not help the economy. Russia offers mainly cheap gas and that is currently limited to flow through Ukraine - a prime target for sabotage. Europe needs to transition to other sources, and not by betting on new nuclear or fuison, both need decades to get up and running (plus, nuclear ties you to Russia, Khazakstan and others - with Canada and Australia being the only big producers with democratic standards).
Upgrade if existing infrastructure, big ass battery storages (maybe with additonal H2 systems), Geo thermal and a smarter net are the way to go, IMHO. We need to build as much as possible. The good news is, those technology is mature and experts are available. It just needs secure funding.
Edit: added spider country
Canada being the only big producer with democratic standards
very much not true: canada produces only slightly more uranium than australia, and canadian uranium reserves are fraction of australia’s - we just don’t mine it much because it’s a bit of a political issue
(canada 873k tonnes, australia slightly more than 2m tonnes)
when it comes to mining pretty much anything, never underestimate just how much raw resources australia has in the ground… and our country is basically entirely based on resource extraction
that being said, i do agree that nuclear isn’t the answer
Ha, did not know that, thank you
i always find the scale kinda mind blowing
we’re in the top 5 for pretty much every raw resource you can think of, and the funny thing is: they’re actually all just byproducts of iron mining
and the scale of the iron mining… you know how australia is almost the size of the US and pretty much entirely covered in desert? desert that’s the same colour as rust because there’s just iron literally everywhere
Sanctions are good, but Europe needs to do more than just sanction Russians and send just enough supplies to Ukraine to keep them going.
I totally agree with increased investments, Europe needs to spend on infrastructure that will allow them to operate independently so they cannot be crippled by sudden changes in geopolitics. I think they should throw money at literally everything. That includes energy, IT, security the lot. I just hope they can do this without putting themselves into unsustainable debt though lots of debt is required at this point
Sanctions are good, but Europe needs to do more than just sanction Russians and send just enough supplies to Ukraine to keep them going.
Indeed. Sanctions do work in the long term, but when an invader is marching into your country right now, you can't wait for those long term effects, you need capable weapons in sufficient numbers right now in order to stop and beat him back on the spot.
I just hope they can do this without putting themselves into unsustainable debt though lots of debt is required at this point
Really, that's easy. Just tax the rich. They have been leeching off the rest of society for decades, it's high time they pay up.
I do believe taxing the rich is part of the strategy but it can't be everything.
Thing is, the rich are the ones most able to move their money around so they pay the least in taxes so I'm not sure Europe, as a whole, will be able to effectively tax them to the correct level in the long term. If the taxes end up 'too high' by their standards, these people will just move to the US where they don't need to help any poors like they should. Rich individuals are also a source of capital to fund start ups which the EU also needs too.
I think it could be more productive to force the rich to put their money into the economy by creating innovative new companies. Companies are harder to move to another country compared to an individual and their family. At the same time, somehow prevent them from dodging the current taxes so they can't just hide their immense wealth from the state for free
You can prevent the rich from sneaking their money out of the tax man's reach, if you only want to. Tax investigators are worth their weight in money. Also a lot of the money of those rich people is in companies and property, which is hard to move, and, for a government willing to do so, easy to impound. We don't need a whole bunch of "innovative" for the sake of "innovation" tech bro brain fart startups, a large part of which will never become profitable, like the US is getting.
Thing is, Europe lags behind in tech on most metrics. We need to foster new companies that can compete in current industries and creat new ones. Without this, tech will continue to be another dimension in which we rely on others to supply us. Of course, some of these start-ups will be shitty cash grabs. But most will be trying to accomplish something real. Europe cannot only rely on once reliable industries for growth (like automotive), it needs to look at the future and jump on it before others do
The Berliner Zeitung claims they will pass a 700B EUR defense aid package right after the German midterms in a few days.
That's much more than all aid so far totaled. So let's hope it's true.
I saw that claim but I dont understand where this money could from. My understanding is the EU, as a whole, has provided ~140B€. So 700B€ would be 5x more than what has already been provided. Whilst this could be possible if it was also intended to revitalise EU militaries and with joint EU borrowing I fear the joint borrowing will prevent everyone from being onboard
It's an EU defense spending package. It might include direct aid to Ukraine, but it's mostly internal spending
Sanctions do work, if they are pushed fast and strong. The slow ramping up of sanctions has allowed Russia to find ways to circumvent or in the case of oil and gas even profit from the price increasing.
However the EU finally targeting the shadow fleet can be a major interruption for Russian Oil trade. They cannot simply pump the oil from the west to the east. They dont have the pipelines and these take years to build
Thing is the sanctions have been slow and did allow time for Putin to shift who he supplies energy to with the shadow fleet. I think adding more sanctions after years of war is not going to amount to much. Especially when the war may stop soon (cause Trump knows how to make the best deals /s). This would give Putin fiscal space to build those pipelines to China and otherwise invest more in his fleet of tankers.
Ultimately, he will find buyers for his energy from countries who don't care about the war and don't care about Europe's sanctions (China, India...). Maybe I'll be wrong and these new sanction will work but I'm sure India and China can figure out how to get the energy they need from Russia
What and why are they holding back? 16 rounds… why are you holding things back at this point? Because the 17th time is the charm?
Incrementalism isn’t going to accomplish anything here.
Seems there are less and less options. Maybe ukraine should suddenly have nukes.
The situation of Ruz isn't very clear. But, most analysts have predicted that the Ruz military and economy are close to collapse, and if they are given one more serious push they are done for this year. So tightening sanctions and maintaining or upgrading the Ukraine support, appear the best strategic option.
Analyst also say that the current Russian military equipment are dwindling dramatically. In another article the current Russian economy and the interest rate, was being compared with Haiti, with similar interest rate at around 20%.
Others say, that new Ruz military escalations , like new invasions in 2025 are highly unlikely, but they have plans, and will take action once they have regrouped. They might use a freezing of the war to buy time, force Ukrainian re-election, use psyops & sabotage, similar to those that have been used in many others countries, to influence elections to get a pro-ruz government installed.
TLDR; let's keep pushing Ruzz back using all possible means.