this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
152 points (97.5% liked)

World News

41149 readers
4062 users here now

A community for discussing events around the World

Rules:

Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.


Lemmy World Partners

News !news@lemmy.world

Politics !politics@lemmy.world

World Politics !globalpolitics@lemmy.world


Recommendations

For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
 

Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

top 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] samus12345@lemm.ee 6 points 19 hours ago
[–] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 16 points 1 day ago (4 children)

Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.

We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.

[–] NotSteve_@lemmy.ca 3 points 14 hours ago

If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 19 hours ago

If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.

[–] Spacehooks@reddthat.com 4 points 1 day ago

Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires

[–] Wahots@pawb.social 7 points 1 day ago (4 children)

As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.

[–] Strawberry@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone

[–] itslilith@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 15 hours ago

We have a few years to improve our asteroid deflection capabilities to change that

[–] samus12345@lemm.ee 4 points 19 hours ago

More proof that there's no god.

[–] frog_brawler@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

There would be enough warning to get people out of the city.

If it does, I think a bunch of new religions are going to pop up.

[–] HungLikeAHoers2010@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 day ago

Washington D.C. I hope.

[–] jj4211@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 5 points 19 hours ago

I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.

They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 45 points 1 day ago (2 children)

So you're tell me there's a chance?

[–] NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)
load more comments (1 replies)
load more comments (1 replies)
[–] SlothMama@lemmy.world 41 points 1 day ago (1 children)

What do we need to get this to %100?

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 26 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let's pile all the earth's magnets at the White House!

I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!

[–] Microplasticbrain@lemm.ee 7 points 1 day ago

So you're telling me there's still a chance

[–] commander@lemmings.world 21 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.

[–] Witchfire@lemmy.world 10 points 1 day ago

As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit

[–] Rai@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 day ago

As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.

Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh

[–] chiliedogg@lemmy.world 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?

[–] Syntha@sh.itjust.works 6 points 1 day ago

Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.

[–] starman2112@sh.itjust.works 11 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away

[–] Zachariah@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] starman2112@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago

I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032

I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory

[–] TachyonTele@lemm.ee 18 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Keep looking, there's got to be something out there that can hit us!

[–] shittydwarf@lemmy.dbzer0.com 8 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

I'm not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope

load more comments (4 replies)
load more comments (1 replies)
[–] vivi@slrpnk.net 14 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It's not a doomsday asteroid

[–] match@pawb.social 17 points 1 day ago (1 children)

imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though

[–] marcos@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)

[–] Wahots@pawb.social 2 points 1 day ago

DART successfully moved an astroid that was probably way bigger!

[–] scaramobo@lemmynsfw.com 1 points 1 day ago

Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth's house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp.. can't have it all I guess. https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

[–] Cryan24@lemmy.world 11 points 1 day ago

Well, that's disappointing..

[–] Splitwood@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.

[–] sunglocto@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] LongLive@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago

🙏🙏🙏

[–] antlion@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 points 1 day ago

Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.

[–] scaramobo@lemmynsfw.com 2 points 1 day ago

There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.

[–] Generic_Idiot@lemm.ee 2 points 1 day ago
[–] Carvex@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] Randomgal@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 day ago

Dontgivemehope.meme

[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago
[–] Canadian_Cabinet@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 day ago

Damn. The bugs need to up their accuracy

load more comments
view more: next ›