Putin Still Holds All the Cards in Ukraine, With No Reason to Fold (www.bloomberg.com)

submitted 1 year ago by yogthos@lemmy.ml to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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[+] direwolf@lemmy.ml -9 points 1 year ago

This is what the EU should propose to Putin. Russia will withdraw from all land it seized from Ukraine after the 2022 invasion. NATO would be dissolved and replaced with a European alliance. Ukraine and Canada would be permitted to join but not the US. If Putin doesn't accept the proposal, the UK and France would send troops to Ukraine.

[-] BrainInABox@lemmy.ml 7 points 1 year ago

Why would Russia agree to that?

[-] direwolf@lemmy.ml -5 points 1 year ago

Russia would gain Crimea, the US military would no longer be in Europe, sanctions against Russia would be lifted, and with UK and French troops in Ukraine, Russia would not be able to conquer Ukraine.

[-] BrainInABox@lemmy.ml 7 points 1 year ago

Russia already has Crimea.

But if you mean a full withdrawal of the US from Europe, then they would probably take my. US would never agree to it though

[-] direwolf@lemmy.ml -5 points 1 year ago

The US would withdrawal fully if it meant the end of the war in Ukraine.

[-] Bartsbigbugbag@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 year ago

The US would never give up its vassals in Europe for a single country.

[-] direwolf@lemmy.ml -4 points 1 year ago

The US has already said it will start withdrawing troops from Europe and Hegseth considers China a bigger threat than Russia.

[-] Bartsbigbugbag@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 year ago

You think they’re going to close all 38 of their bases across all of Europe? That would be a big strategic break from full spectrum dominance, which is US policy, and part of the plan to contain the growth of China.

[-] direwolf@lemmy.ml -1 points 1 year ago

From https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5292882-pentagon-china-risks-global-instability/

In late March, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth issued the Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance to the Pentagon. According to the guidance, as quoted by The Washington Post, “China is the Department’s sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the U.S. homeland is the Department’s sole pacing scenario.” The Pentagon is instructed, per the report, to plan only for contingencies with China.

Given the trends in the new administration, none of this is surprising, but it is shocking.

The document is a blueprint for geopolitical malpractice. The guidance’s identification of China as a major security threat, and thus a priority, is appropriate. But the prescribed downgrading of American commitments in Europe and the Middle East is a recipe for global instability, including in Asia. Violent conflagrations will follow.

[-] BrainInABox@lemmy.ml 5 points 1 year ago

I find that incredibly implausible.

[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 5 points 1 year ago

There is zero chance of Russia withdrawing from the current territories at this point. Also, why would Russia give shit if France and UK sent troops to Ukraine. Russian army is at around 1.5 million troops, while the EU could scrape up a few thousand troops at best. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-army-troops-ukraine-defence-b2701635.html

Meanwhile, the US provides the bulk of NATO accounting for over 70% of arms and majority of the troops. Without the US, there is no NATO. Anybody who understands basic arithmetic can see how absurd this whole notion is.

[+] direwolf@lemmy.ml -9 points 1 year ago

Numbers alone don't count. During World War II, Germany could have conquered Russia if it didn't have to fight the powerful US in the west. That's the reason Putin might accept the plan. Without the US in Europe, Putin might think he can conquer Europe.

[-] BrainInABox@lemmy.ml 11 points 1 year ago

Germany could have conquered Russia

Germany was already losing when the US entered the war

[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 8 points 1 year ago

The alternate reality you inhabit is fascinating. Meanwhile, here's what a book produced by US military has to say on the subject.

The fact that you're historically illiterate explains why you have ideas that have no basis in reality. Maybe read a book for once in your life.

[+] direwolf@lemmy.ml -10 points 1 year ago

By 1944, Russia had fully recovered from the German invasion and was a powerful military. That was not the case in 1942. When Hitler launched his 1942 summer offensive, he had to keep units in the west to repel any invasion of France by the Western allies.

[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 10 points 1 year ago

You can read the whole book, USSR was the main force fighting the nazis and did far more than all the allies combined. Your historical illiteracy is frankly an embarrassment.

[+] direwolf@lemmy.ml -9 points 1 year ago

I know that but the Western allies kept Hitler from concentrating his forces against Russia. Also, the West through Arctic convoys gave Russia supplies. Finally, it was the West which bombed Germany not Russia.

[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 10 points 1 year ago

The reality is that US companies continued to work with the nazis well into the war. And as the book I linked explains in great detail, USSR would have won the war regardless. Your whole premise here is nonsense born out of sheer ignorance. Instead of making inane comments on here and wasting people's time, go read a book and learn about the subject you're attempting to debate.

[-] pelikan@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 year ago

I don't understand why this was downvoted, if such a proposal had been made in 2022 during first Istanbul talks, it could have prevented another three years of meatgrinder. As during those talks Russia openly discussed getting troops back to pre-2022 border as possible option, and European alliance instead of NATO (i.e. no US troops and nukes in Europe) is also offer that is hard to ignore. So after some negotiation it might become a deal; sadly noone offered that.

[-] direwolf@lemmy.ml -2 points 1 year ago

The difference is that Trump doesn't seem interested defending Europe. The EU should use this to bargain with Putin regarding Ukraine.

this post was submitted on 18 May 2025

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