I've been hearing that the Russian economy is failing since the beginning of the war
this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2026
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I posted that already some time ago, and it fits again.
We've been hearing this indeed for a long time, and we'll most likely continue to hear it for a long time in the future. Most economists didn't predict a sudden collapse in Russia soon after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
One of my favourite elaborations is an interview with Russian economist Natalia Zubarevich in 2023 who said back then about her country, ‘There Will Be no Collapses, but Rather a Viscous, Slow Sinking into Backwardness’.
And in a chapter in the 2023 book on "Russia's Imperial Endeavor and Its Geopolitical Consequences" (highly recommended read), Hungarian scholar Dóra Győrffy concludes (opens pdf):
Although Western sanctions imposed on Russia did not immediately cripple the Russian economy, this does not mean they are ineffective. Russia has lost its most pros-perous markets in the EU for its energy products, while trade reorientation towards Asia faces major obstacles given the limitations of transport capacities such as gas pipelines or shipping. The outlook is even worse for its long-term growth prospects. The sanctions and the war have undermined all major factors of growth including access to capital and technology, the available quantity and quality of labor, the institutional system, and freedom. The war has made Russia a neo-backward country.
The relative certainty of the long-term decline of Russia stands in contrast to the uncertainties surrounding the prospects of post-war Ukraine. While success is far from guaranteed, Ukraine has a window of opportunity to leave its post-Soviet patronal structures behind, and build a resilient democracy, rule of law, and a strong market economy with Western support. The return of refugees, the inflow of Western capital for reconstruction, access to technology, assistance in institution building, and a strong social commitment to the idea of freedom provide a strong foundation for a new Ukraine embedded in the transatlantic alliance. Achieving this vision is the shared hope and responsibility of Ukraine and the West in their fight against autocracies.
The fact that they felt the need to publish this headline makes me think the Russians are printing doing wuite well.