cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/59535651
early one in three people in Myanmar now needs humanitarian aid, five years after the military’s 2021 coup plunged the country into civil war, exposing more than 90% of the population to violence within five kilometres of their homes. More than 8,200 people have been killed and over 31,500 arrested by the military since the takeover, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Myanmar rights group.
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Su Mon Thant, Asia-Pacific senior analyst at ACLED - Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent, impartial global monitor that collects, analyses, and maps data on conflict and protest - has spent years tracking the war’s toll on civilians. In this ZMINA interview, she explains the pattern behind the military’s near-total impunity, how China and Russia help shield it from accountability, and what the international community could still do.
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Deadly conflict has been raging across Myanmar ever since the military coup in 2021. But fighting between the military and ethnic armed groups isn’t new – the military has been clashing with one group or another since independence in 1948 ...
Support from the governments of China and Russia has helped the junta continue its operations. The military has managed selective bilateral ceasefires with a few ethnic armed organisations, but those deals haven’t turned into any kind of real peace process. Right now, there’s still no credible or inclusive political path forward that can tackle the root causes of the conflict and finally bring the fighting to an end ...
Resistance to the coup – the Spring Revolution [in 2021] – started as nationwide peaceful protests with people from all walks of life [...] calling for a return to democracy – asking that the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi [but] the military responded with brutal force.
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The military improved its ability to counter drones used by resistance groups and strengthened its air-defence capabilities, with military support from Russia and China contributing to this adaptation.
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There is a clear pattern of the air strikes [by the military] targeting gatherings of civilian [at] places where displaced people seek shelter, children go to school, and ordinary civilians gather. They may also be places where people injured in fighting receive medical treatment.
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The military has also targeted social and cultural events, including festivals, donation ceremonies, New Year celebrations, which take place on different dates among Myanmar’s ethnic communities, and weddings.
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The international community should [...] be careful not to interpret the regime’s decades-long strategy of regular symbolic releases of limited numbers of political prisoners as evidence of a genuine political opening or an end to repression.
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China and Russia have been crucial in keeping Myanmar’s military regime afloat by backing them with diplomacy, weapons, tech and funding. That support makes a huge difference: it lowers the regime’s costs of repression and helps it withstand relentless armed resistance.
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On the global stage, China and Russia shield the military at the United Nations, blocking attempts to apply stronger international pressure or coordinated action against them.
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Chinese software and digital technologies have reportedly enhanced the military’s surveillance capabilities
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Through regional cooperation mechanisms such as the Lancang–Mekong Cooperation framework, China has helped maintain the junta’s international connections and reduce its diplomatic isolation. These relationships may also facilitate regime access to essential resources, including oil and gas, through connections with countries such as Iran.
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China’s and Russia’s support should be understood not as isolated acts of assistance but as part of a broader system that enables the junta to maintain military capacity, suppress opposition, and resist international efforts to weaken its rule.
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