I already commented this but FYI:
The Uncommitted in Uncommitted Movement referred to marking the uncommitted option on Democratic Party primary ballots in certain states. The Uncommitted Movement did this. It was never their intention to contest the DNC ticket in the general election.
Wiki is a good place to start if you would like to learn more!
It might be multiple overlapping shadows.
My argument's central point is supported by evidence. Your argument's central point is to invent risk with racial bias. Your argument is fundamentally flawed because it is not based in reality. Racial profiling will only lead to unjustly excluding people.
The reason I know it would be safe for her to speak is that I'm not a racist. When I grow up, I hope to help build systems that include everyone and exclude intolerance.
This is a self-help article on a self-help website. It's not a justification for racial profiling.
https://modelthinkers.com/playbook/welcome-to-modelthinkers
ModelThinkers has an ambitious goal. We aim to help build a better world by empowering individuals, teams and organisations to be smarter, faster.
https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/probabilistic-thinking
The horrible truth? In our culture, 'uncertainty' is a dirty word.
In most situations, it's common, perhaps even expected, that you approach and explain the world with Binary Thinking — where options, choices and everything is either black or white; yes or no; on or off.
Binary Thinking will suffice for some things, sometimes. But for the most part, in the reality of our uncertain, complex world, this simply won't cut it.
A more useful approach is Probabilistic Thinking, which helps to inform decision making by considering the odds, or likelihood, of various outcomes.
FROM POKER TO BUSINESS.
As poker champion and author Annie Duke explained: “Poker players and entrepreneurs both embrace the probabilistic nature of decisions. When you make a decision, you’ve defined the set of possible outcomes, but you can’t guarantee that you’ll get a particular outcome.”
FORECASTING.
This model is particularly important given findings from behavioural economics that we tend to be overly optimistic and overconfident in predictions. For example, one way to improve forecasts involves researching past cases and assigning probabilistic outcomes to those cases.
BEFRIENDING UNCERTAINTY.
Part of Probabilistic Thinking involves befriending uncertainty, which is incredibly hard. And, as a result, finding the confidence to act by understanding probable outcomes, based on your current knowledge, while accepting the fact that you might always be wrong.
Your immediate inclination might be to focus Probabilistic Thinking on how you understand the world, that's wonderful, but also consider how you might apply it to your own development — see the Actionable Takeaways below for more.
IN YOUR LATTICEWORK.
Consider how to apply this Probabilistic Thinking to understanding Correlation vs Causation, Split Testing, Cynefin Framework, the Risk Matrix and even Second-Order Thinking all of which, in a variety of ways, help to understand and/or predict events in complex situations. Actionable Takeaways
Acknowledge and befriend uncertainty.
Be okay with saying ‘I’m not sure’. Accept that you are never going to know all the facts in any given situation and that there will be no guarantees of a specific outcome.
Ask yourself, ‘what else might happen?’
Investing time and effort to consider more possible options will help to inform the actual chances of the desired or expected outcome.
Decouple notions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ decisions from outcomes.
Uncertainty and complexity means there is always a degree of luck involved in any situation, so it’s possible to make a ‘bad’ decision that leads to a positive outcome. Instead of focusing on results, reflect on past decisions from a probabilistic point of view.
Express levels of confidence and avoid claiming 100% certainty.
Get in the habit of assigning levels of certainty to predicted outcomes, rather than claiming that something simply ‘will happen’, estimate the percentage chance it will happen based on your available facts.
Update your probabilities.
Be open to new information and consider emerging facts that might inform an updated view of your probabilities. This involves challenging and interrupting your biases.
Apply Probabilistic Thinking to understanding yourself to be adaptable and grow.
Rather than just pointing this mental model outwards, to help you understand the world, consider how it can help you to understand, manage and develop yourself. When expressing an emotion or thought, practice using the term 'part of me...'. For example, rather than saying 'I'm anxious about that', try saying 'part of me is anxious about that'. Not only is it more accurate, but it also gives room for you to acknowledge that other parts of you might be excited or happy at the same time. After all, you're as complicated as the rest of the world :).
lol, did you forget the part where she is part of a group that tried to hold the Democratic nomination hostage?
People were protesting the DNC. No one was being held hostage. In the US, people have the First Amendment right to assemble.
We have both invented possible versions.
My argument is based on the evidence about her status as an elected representative. It is not based on bias involving her inherent characteristics of being a Palestinian woman. The risk of her speaking was no greater than any of the people who got to speak at the DNC. There was no risk associated with anyone who spoke at the DNC.
Come on. A movement doesn’t announce serious policy change via a single interview to a news site.
They did though. There is no reason not to. The point of the news is to inform the public.
A probabilistic worldview is difficult and not everyone has the cognitive capacity to do so.
can you explain what you think probabilistic thinking is?
This is a self-help article designed to help with anxiety related to life being uncertain. It's not a worldview or even a way to justify bias of any kind. If this helps some people that's great, but it's not implying anyone actually calculates the probabilities in their head. Humans aren't calculators. It's a collection of linguistic tricks to help manage uncertainty that anyone can do.
Update your probabilities.
Be open to new information and consider emerging facts that might inform an updated view of your probabilities. This involves challenging and interrupting your biases.
If your argument is that this is a justification for racial profiling then the source cited undermines that position.
The point of sharing this speech on lemmy was to give people a tool for arguing in favor in of both the Palestinian people and Democratic Party's ticket. The goal was to discuss useful strategies. As long as your argument is about excluding people based on inherent characteristics, racial profiling, we have nothing further to discuss. Racial profiling is not a useful way to view reality because it is not based on reality.
This version of the person your argument is about is invented for your argument. This version of her is not real. It is based on bias, not evidence. People do not normally engage in the behavior that you are describing. She is not any more risky than any other speaker who got a speaking slot at the DNC.
She has every reason to take advantage off the slot by giving the intended speech and nothing to be gained by deviating. The Uncommitted Movement explains in the speech their cause is a part of the Democratic Party and is best served by being part of the Democratic Party. Going against the Democratic Party and trying to sink Kamala Harris' campaign would be detrimental to the Palestinian people. Where as sticking with the Democrats is beneficial for the Palestinian people.
That’s why we are here—members of this Democratic Party committed to equal rights and dignity for all. What we do here echoes around the world.
They know what Trump thinks about Palestinians. Again this is the endorsement line.
Let’s commit to each other, to electing Vice President Harris and defeating Donald Trump who uses my identity as a Palestinian as a slur.
The metal detectors, like stopping this speech, are there to prevent a potential risk, despite the odds being fairly slim.
Your argument again relies on bias instead of evidence. Here you equate the risk of a Palestinian woman speaking to concealed weapons. Your argument's application of risk is targeted to her and her movement selectively as if they have some kind of known inherent risk when they do not. This is commonly referred to as racial profiling. Where instead of using actual evidence to exclude a person, your argument relies on culturally inherited biases to invent risk where there is none. Your argument is attempting to use racism, unsuccessfully, to make an obvious mistake seem like a reasonable decision, when it's not. We can only hope this was not the reason the DNC gave the Uncommitted Movement a no.
Also, the speech wasn't leaked. It was given freely by the Uncommitted Movement so people could see it. Mother Jones interviewed the speaker. A news site like Mother Jones is a legitimate way to communicate with the public in the year 2024.
“there is no way a state member of Congress who has been in office for all of 20 months would go off script in support of a cause which she feels is super important."
Twenty months? You mean almost two years? No one is throwing away their career for the thirty seconds it would take to escort them off stage. This idea that she or anyone in her position would seriously plot to do this is an exceptional claim. Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence to back them up.
They released the speech to Mother Jones where people saw it. In that speech they endorsed Kamala.
Wanting something to be true is not the same as it being true.
That's exactly it. Your argument wants there to be a secret speech for her to go off script to. But the speech they released is the speech. There is no conspiracy. There is no evidence there was any plot to use the time for anything besides reading the two minute speech they released to Mother Jones. There was no indication there was any risk whatsoever. They had a list of speakers. They were open to edits and vetting for the speech.
Below, you can find the speech Romman wants to give. Uncommitted says it was open to multiple speakers. Rep. Romman and Uncommitted organizers both confirmed that this was the speech she was planning to give if allowed for a potential 2-minute speaking slot. Uncommitted said they were open to the speech being edited and vetted. They said the DNC did not ask to see the speech.
Wanting there to be another speech won't make it true. Wanting the Democrats be the reasonable people who don't make obvious mistakes won't make it true. Wanting this issue to go away won't make it go away.
In this comment section, I've been arguing with a user who is arguing that Kamala is no different than Trump on this issue. I think we can both agree that isn't true. People with these views are not uncommon. I have been arguing with people for months about Israel's genocide in Gaza and related topics. We don't know how close the election is going to be, but pretending no one cares about these issues is not an effective strategy. This issue is not a wedge issue for the Democrats, so don't let anyone make it out to be one. This speech is a useful tool, if we choose to use it.
We do not know why the Uncommitted Movement was denied a speaking slot or who the decision maker was. All we know is that the Uncommitted Movement got a no. Regardless of who made the decision or why, it was an unforced error from the Democrats.
An endorsement in a speech that never happened is practically moot, even the Mother Jones article makes this abundantly clear.
No where in the article does it say or imply anything to that effect. The Uncommitted Movement released the endorsement to the public. It counts. Especially since their goal was to contest Biden during the Democratic Party's primary election and not the general election. It's in their name. Uncommitted in Uncommitted Movement refers to marking the uncommitted option on certain states' primary ballots. So it doesn't matter that the DNC made a mistake in not airing the speech. The Uncommitted Movement has made their position known. They support Kamala Harris.
Let’s commit to each other, to electing Vice President Harris and defeating Donald Trump who uses my identity as a Palestinian as a slur.
Defending Israel from Iran doesn't have to be giving Israel more offensive weapons. It can just be restocking the iron dome and shooting down Iran's missiles and drones. Democrats are working to negotiate a ceasefire which is essential to stopping the genocide.
This is from the Harris campaign.
What the group, or any people who continue to protest, will see is a president “who is committed to ending the violence, … making sure that we resolve this conflict with a permanent cease-fire that allows Israel to fully secure itself, that fully continues and make sure that we have a full humanitarian aid, but also make sure that Gazans are able to peacefully live and prosper in Gaza,” he said.
A commitment to defend Israel doesn't have to be an endorsement of genocide. The campaign is onboard with supporting Gaza. This is already a huge departure from Biden's rhetoric who would barely mention the Palestinians at all. Actual indications are that the next Democratic administration will be better on this issue and certainly better than the Republicans.
The Uncommitted Movement supports Kamala Harris because the Democrats are the best option for the Palestinian people. Kamala has made it clear she wants a ceasefire. Trump stated he's going to let Israel finish the job, ie finish the genocide. Anyone voting for Republicans or refusing to vote for Democrats either wants the genocide to continue or has been misled by people who do.
Harris met with the Uncommitted Movement. The Uncommitted Movement endorsed Harris in the speech they released to Mother Jones. Harris isn't a life long zionist like Biden. Harris picked Tim Walz over a zionist like Josh Shapiro for VP.
Supporting Israel against Iran doesn't mean allowing Israel to commit genocide in Gaza.
She already commented on the scale of the suffering in Gaza saying it was heartbreaking during the DNC.
It's safe to assume things will improve.
It really seems like you are asserting things without regard for evidence or observable reality. You can’t just say “there’s no risk of deviating from the speech.” That’s a very bold assertion made entirely without evidence!
No, it's not. Again, she is an elected Democrat. If the DNC can't trust their own elected officials then they can't trust anyone. Your argument is trying to make it sound like a random protester would be giving the speech.
And it is a strategic switch that seems to only exist in this one copy of a speech, not on the website or anything where you would expect to see a significant policy switch.
Their website is for general information and donations. Not for sending smoke signals to the DNC. They can communicate over the phone or by email. The Uncommitted Movement do not have to signal anything publicly on their donation page for the DNC to take them seriously.
Again, you have this group that have been pretty anti-establishment then promising they are going to radically shift gears and are now going to be vocal for Harris? Seems off.
The Uncommited part in Uncommitted Movement referrers to the uncommitted option on certain state's primary ballots for the Democratic Party. The intention of the movement was always to contest Biden during the primary election and not the general election. There is no switching gears, that was always the plan.
All of the above is a moot point anyway. The DNC is over. They did not allow the speech to be given by anyone.
Those likely voters are voting. It will come down to unlikely voters. This the margin of victory in 2020.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Many of the races in battle ground states came down to less than a million votes. .5% of 340 million people is 1.7 million people. In other words, enough people to make the Democrats lose critical swing states.
Rather than misleading people about reality and blowing off voters in an election where every vote counts, consider telling them the truth instead. The Uncommitted Movement supports Kamala Harris. The speech is evidence of that. Arguments trying to make this a wedge issue against the Democrats are demonstrably false. The Democratic Party's ticket is good for the Palestinian people, don't let any misinformation about that go unchallenged.
I'm talking about arguments like this one in this comment section:
Really like the implication people are making here that the DNC clearly does not care about the amount of constituents in the uncommitted group because they think enough voters will vote against Trump.
ie we get genocide either way
yeah I’m so excited to vote this November…
Trump is going to let all of the Palestinians be killed. Arguments in support of the Palestinian people should be trying to energize people to vote for Kamala and to defeat Trump this November. However the rhetoric in the above argument is designed to de-energize voters. We can argue against that rhetoric with facts like this speech.
With Trump the genocide will continue until all Palestinians in the Gaza strip are dead and the West Bank is annexed. With Harris we get a ceasefire.
I could not be more excited with the option to the stop the genocide.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/21/meet-the-uncommitted-how-gaza-hangs-over-democratic-national-convention
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=uncommitted+movement&atb=v411-1&ia=web