alyaza

Conditions will be very favorable for intensification of TD 14 through Tuesday. Ocean temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico are record-warm – 30-31 degrees Celsius (86-88°F), about 1-2 degrees Celsius above average. Moreover, a substantial amount of warm water extends to great depth (i.e., the ocean has a high ocean heat content). Wind shear is predicted to be light, less than 10 knots, and the atmosphere will be very moist, with a mid-level relative humidity of 70-80%. These conditions should allow TD 14 to become Tropical Storm Milton by Sunday, and Hurricane Milton by Monday.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, when TD 14 will be in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, the intensity forecast grows more complex. There will be plenty of dry air to the north that the storm will begin wrapping towards its core, though it currently appears that wind shear will remain low, and this dry air will have trouble penetrating into the storm’s core. Ocean temperatures along TD 14’s track will drop by about a degree Celsius, but they will remain more than ample to support a hurricane, and the storm will be passing over a region with warm water that extends to great depth—the Loop Current. TD 14 will be passing over the same stretch of of ocean that Hurricane Helene traversed at the end of September, but Helene’s passage did not cool the waters of the eastern Gulf very much, since it was moving at a high forward speed. As TD 14 approaches Florida, it will be near a region of strong upper-level winds to its northeast, associated with the jet stream, which will provide a very favorable upper-level outflow channel (as well as increased wind shear).

at least for this specific wording change: we can get around to this eventually, but it's on the backburner for now

there is a comment on the article to this effect, for what that's worth:

Angel

Hello Kris,

A lovely idea, but I won’t be visiting any public bathhouse any time soon. For many of us, the pandemic isn’t over. It’s contagious, airborne, and still killing and disabling people (including healthy people who have previously been infected and been ok) every day. Some ways to address the transmission of covid in bath houses can include rigorous HEPA filtration; required testing (using LAMP tests, for example, which are €10/test once you have the machine to read the results (another few hundred euro), and you can pool several people in one test); and maybe masks (I’ve read that they don’t work if they get wet, but I also read an article where someone tested several and went swimming with them. From memory, a regular Aura (~€1) worked nearly as long as an intentionally waterproof model). None of these are cheap by my standards. Not sure what you do about warts, foot fungus, and many other common bath house diseases.

Thanks, Angel

Despite receiving racist emails and comments and suffering a swatting attack — a false report of an ongoing serious crime in order to elicit a response from law enforcement — journalists at The Haitian Times have kept reporting on what is happening in their community, including compiling a list of ways to help.

A nonprofit group in Springfield, the Haitian Community Help and Support Center, which has been inundated with requests for support from Haitians worried for their safety, has given voice to community members by speaking to media outlets on their behalf.

Multiple Haitian groups, such as Ayisyen pou Harris — Creole for “Haitians for Harris” — are harnessing that spirit of fighting back and channeling that frustration and outrage into political action. They are rallying behind Harris’ presidential bid and encouraging others to do likewise.

yeah, chiming in to say i think this is an acceptable case of US news in the World News section. obviously don't go overboard with edge cases, but there's really no dilution of World News from stories like this which do have some multinational significance.

this thread is a disaster from front to back, so it's being locked.

If you’re feeling that announced regret while reading this tame banter, then I apologize - but I would loved to have seen you in some of the larger forums I’ve moderated in the past - and they weren’t even about politics. The users there would have eaten you alive on the first day.

i'm... sorry that we generally like to treat our userbase as adults capable of basic introspection when they do something wrong or sanctionable, instead of immediately telling them to fuck off? but again this is way besides the point--which is, don't relitigate this, and stop going into every thread even remotely adjacent to Israel/Palestine and causing problems. your opinions are simply not important enough (or, in my opinion, well reasoned enough) to hear them out for an additional ten months beyond the ten months you've already been an issue.

i'm very uninterested in relitigating your temporary silencing for getting into aimless slapfights with people on here on this subject. don't bother bringing it up again. strictly speaking the silencing should probably also apply to this thread and just result in me deleting your comments without even responding to them like i am now--but i'm being generous in not doing that here and just calling them a cringe opinion you have the right to express. please do not make me regret that and start enforcing your temporary silencing elsewhere too.

one that very much isn’t as unambiguous as you’re trying to portray it as or have been led to believe through your little filter bubble (at least according to my little filter bubble - opinions, opinions, opinions).

no, it's pretty unambiguous both internationally (where Israel has been rebuked time and time again for its apartheid system and systemic discrimination and abuse against Palestinians) and morally (Israel's current conduct toward people in the West Bank in Gaza is almost one-to-one analogous to Jim Crow and apartheid, even ignoring Zionism and its contribution to the subject)--most people just don't care that much about a foreign conflict that doesn't affect them and a foreign ethnic group they can't directly do much to alleviate the plight of.

fundamentally, though, this is an "i can see discrimination with my own eyes, and settlers from Israel will literally admit to doing the discrimination in casual interviews" and an "i don't think 40,000 Palestinians[^1] are all Hamas militants who should be annihilated with indiscriminate bombing that has leveled the vast majority of Gaza's already crippled infrastructure, i think that is very obviously morally wrong" thing.

[^1]: or many more. some of the more extreme estimates now have the death toll potentially as high as 300,000

It would have been much wiser of him to support his cause elsewhere instead of at and against the institution that he relies on for his degree and visa.

personally i think people should be allowed to exercise basic freedom of speech (especially for unambiguously morally correct causes) without being violently deported over it, but you have what i would consider consistently bad takes on this subject so i'm not surprised you've taken another bad line here.

this appears to be the first time anything like this has happened or been tried; unsurprisingly, students have been mobilizing against it and it's been condemned by dozens of student groups. it's also probably union busting, as Taal is a member of the Cornell Graduate Student Union and they have a memorandum with Cornell that any suspensions like this have to be mediated with the union--which of course was not done here.

basically, put it this way: if a cop stops you and asks you for your phone--what are you realistically going to do in that situation the moment they don't respect your "no" and begin to pressure you, threaten you, and decide to throw the legal book at you (however dubious) for saying no? for most people, the answer is going to be "just give up the phone and start complying with the cop" even though that is not something the cop should be able to do. because at the end of the day they have a gun, and can put you in jail (or at least make your day hellish) more-or-less unilaterally, with very little recourse for you unless you want to do expensive litigation.

But if we’re talking about a law that actually says the cop cannot take your phone no matter what, and they do, then any public defender would be able to point it out and the judge would certainly have to enforce it. I can’t think of a way the cop would abuse their power because, in this case they don’t have it.

they can abuse their power because they're a cop, with a badge and gun, and the right to maim or literally kill you with it (and probably get away with it even if it's not strictly legal) if you don't comply with their demands in the moment. again: cops consistently do not care about or follow legal procedures they're supposed to, frequently fuck up those procedures even when they do, and most cops probably don't even think of it as their job to secure some airtight case that stands up to legal scrutiny. it's not a profession that lend itself to the kind of charitability that's being given here, and the record of the profession makes it even less deserving of that charitability.