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Just want to preface this whole argument with a "This issue is pretty complex, and there are valid reasons to be concerned on both sides."
I always see the "physical differences" argument, and my response is where do you draw the line? There are outliers of both cis men and women, so if we're going purely off natural physical ability, is it okay to bump the lowest performance cis men into the women's league, or the highest performance women into the men's leagues?
It's funny you mention rugby, because I have a cis female friend who plays. She's 5'11 and ~180lbs, and an absolute tank on the field. I'm trans, and we're basically the exact same size/weight. Her 1RM on basically anything other than bench has always been higher than mine, even as a guy. If the concern is purely about physical differences, then at what point do you start singling out non-trans people for being outliers, even if it's 100% natural?
While I absolutely understand the issues with allowing those who've gone through testosterone puberty into sports with those who haven't (painting with as broad a brush as possible), I think the main reason I struggle to agree with bans of trans athletes in any capacity is simply because it's 100% going to be abused by shitty people, and is an overly simplistic solution.
My overly simplistic solution? Stop grouping people by gender, and just break it up into tiered leagues/divisions/weight classes like football/soccer, baseball, or wrestling? Will there be a natural segmentation based off sex? For a lot of sports, almost definitely. But I think it's the most equitable solution, and also helps break down the idea that women can't possibly compete against men in any way, or that men are inherently better than women. You now also get the added benefit that people who might normally be cut from a team for low performance now have the opportunity to play in a lower division, and have a reason for the players in the low/mid divisions who might obliterate the competition to have a reason to keep improving for a shot at a higher division.
Now, feel free to tear apart my idea, because I'm sure there are many aspects of it I didn't clearly think through, but it's just a thought.
Just to add on to this: I was an all state scrum half and played at a division 1 school in college, and I have played with women that can absolutely wreck my ass on a rugby pitch. There's absolutely no reason a woman couldn't play with men if they're at the same skill level.