this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2023
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The dairy industry doesn't have a future. (self.newzealand)
submitted 1 year ago by evanuggetpi to c/newzealand
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So, I've been thinking about our dairy industry, and I reckon it's facing existential threats on a number of fronts. We know the environmental issues – water pollution, habitat loss, deforestation, methane and CO2 emissions. Animal welfare is also an issue, for example the ethical treatment of male calves.

And then there's tech. Lab-grown milk protein is a thing now, and plant-based dairy is seeing big gains. Fonterra's even investing into lab-grown milk proteins. See https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/130551099/labmade-milk-getting-the-creaminess-without-the-climate-pollution for other companies in NZ making lab-grown milk. When China realises mass production of casein in labs, demand for our milk powder will... evaporate. And that milk powder, is, what, 95% of the demand?

I don't see how we can just 'adapt' dairy farming. These aren't small problems, they're insurmountable challenges. And those pressures are only going to increase.

If these threats are unlikely to be mitigated, the focus must shift towards planning how to downscale dairy farming in a responsible way. Industries have come and gone before ( whaling, anyone? ). Anyone got some thoughts on this? What will NZ look like in 20 years?

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[–] murl 4 points 1 year ago

In terms of providing fat/protein for processed food, agree that it is probably a sunset industry. Milk powder will become lab 100% or close to that.

Old-school dairy will still exist, for things like boutique cheeses. Terrior is important in that market. The fonterra model of pumping out mega-tonnes of generic product is irrelevant. Those who want to remain dairy farming should be forming relationships with individual cheese makers and developing cheeses that reflect their locality.

As factory created protein takes over, there will be more focus on "destination" food experiences as a way for land based farmers to carry on. Tourism and dining with farm visits to see a cow, that sort of thing. $$$. Most people won't bother, just stick to product for their dietary needs.