When a huge industry basically disappears overnight, the flow on impacts will be much wider than just to dairy farmers. Every motorbike and tractor salesman and mechanic, every agriculture specialist from banking to insurance to pasture to large animal vets and livestock agents. Virtually every small town held together by the business of the local farmers will turn into a block of the unemployed, eventually the towns will start to disappear.

Maybe these businesses will survive for a while as dairy blocks convert to sheep and beef, as many of the specialised industries that go along with dairy farms are similar. But this will cause an influx of meat in an industry that already has enough. And people are eating less meat.

If the government wants to cut the number of cattle we have, maybe the answer is to contribute to the lab-milk research to allow it to come about sooner.

[–] 2tapry 2 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Not sure why in NZ it seems that the government is always responsible, this should be driven by the industry e.g. Frontera. After all, it is their lively hood and they are the ones who have created the situation. Admittedly with some push from govt. at times.

[–] Dave 1 points 1 year ago (4 children)

it's happening one way or another, but fonterra is owned by farmers. They have no incentive to make it happen quicker. Therefore a nudge may be in order.

[–] 2tapry 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yes they do? Farmers are share holders and Frontera need to make a profit to pay back to farmers. If the industry tanks so do they?

Interestingly, the area where I live was once heavily invested in forestry, mostly native harvesting. The govt. put a stop to that, rightly due to disappearing native forestry. The town nose dived and the population halved. It's a shell of what it once was.

Forestry is beginning to reappear, so the town is unlikely to disappear as many try to report. It will just change. Hopefully some of the dairy will convert to crops (oats) which will see a future, possibly better than now.

My reading of the history of the area where I am, indicates that dairy has NOT contributed much to the prosperity of the area, but there are some wealthy dairy farmers who will sell up with plenty to retire on. And move away taking a lot with them.

[–] Dave 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I'm honestly not sure how the fonterra this would work. Farmers own shares based out their milk output. They are required to own a certain number of shares based on this. If lab grown milk starts getting processed through fonterra, wouldn't the owners of the lab buy the fonterra shares? If fonterra owns the lab, do current dairy farmers just transition to being owners that aren't contributing milk?

And in regards to the towns, it's worth considering the world is a different place than it was 100 or even 50 years ago. Forestry workers can drive from a bigger city, do a days work, and head home. They don't need the small towns like they used to.

I think anything is just speculation, you can't normally predict the effects of huge change ahead of time. But it will be an interesting next few decades.

[–] 2tapry 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

If fonterra owns the lab, do current dairy farmers just transition to being owners that aren’t contributing milk?

I suspect Frontera would 'pay' some farmers to transition to produce the raw ingredients required to produce alternatives. Thus, their expertise could continue to be utilised along with their export strengths. The issue will be with those stubborn farmers who refuse or are reluctant to change - the almighty dollar will speak to them eventually.

Forestry workers can drive from a bigger city...

Don't see that here. There are local Forestry, Sawmill, and Transport (logging) workers who live in the community and, of what I see, contribute more to the town than dairy workers. It takes very few people to run a modern, robotic dairy these days. Usually just the owner/manager and a couple of foreign workers - often seasonal, so they come and go, most living on the farms, not in the township. Very few farmers shop locally, they tend to travel into the "city" to purchase and/or get groceries delivered (as do I). A few spend a bit at the pub/club, but not as much as you would probably think.

I personally believe there would be an increase in population with a move away from dairy - but that's just my thinking based on what I see.

[–] Dave 1 points 1 year ago

It's interesting to think about. We'll have to remember to come back to your predictions once the tipping point has been reached.

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