this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2026
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The ceasefire has very low odds of holding. The US and Iran are taking shots at each other, and Israel has zero interest in ending the conflict in Lebanon indefinitely.
fwiw, on like the 2nd or 3rd day of the closure, Peter Zeihan declared simply that it would never open again and the world will have to adjust.
Sometimes, he's right
A permanent closure wouldn't benefit Iran either, so at some point it will have to open, even if with tolls
Tolls are probably reasonable at this point. 1MM Per ship. Why give up what they have taken even if by force. Absolute insanity on the US and no more credibility.
I don't see why it would be so low.
If Iran adjusts the price to "what the market will bear"... well, the USA is really the only country that could subdue Iran by force. Europe is too busy with Russia and China doesn't have force projection at that distance.
So. How much money/hit to the economy do you think Trump, or for that matter the POTUS that comes after him, would need to suffer before sending ~1M or more troops to an active shooting war to topple the IRGC?