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‘Unprecedented’ rain and floods kill five in Japan as 7000 stranded at airport
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2026
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The weather models are built around long-term average. Short term observations even if they are consistent and low variance can be unexpected outliers for the models. This is a common concern in academia where people have been raising concerns about models having a bias and consistently underpredicting extreme events.