Zelenskyy says Putin may mobilize ‘hundreds of thousands’ after Russia’s elections (tvpworld.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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Something doesn't smell right about this alleged post-election mobilitzation in Russia.

It's Russia. The election's "results' have as much impact to Putin's crime syndicate as shooting rubber bands at the stars. Why would they bother to wait for a false mandate in an election that doesn't matter?
They need the troops now. Mobilization that doesn't start until October means those currently-civilian conscripts will not even start reaching the front lines for somewhere between 8 weeks and 6 months.
The Russian war strategy has 3 aspects:

Small infiltration teams pushed into soft areas to probe defenses and hope Ukraine leaves. This uses men as worthless meat.
Standoff missile and glide bomb terror attacks to soften Ukrainian defenses and destroy society. This uses high cost, high input and hard to replace assets.
Keep doing both until they give you something to make it stop. Then prepare for the next invasion before Ukraine can recover strength.

A mobilization of say 500k civilians won't have a lick of difference to the tech heavy terror bombing campaign. It will only help perpetuate the meat grinder, but with civlians less capable than the current grunts being blasted into pulp in muddy rainwater puddles today.

All this to say - The Mobilization feels like a bit of a bluff. Something to scare Ukraine into concessions.

And even if it's not, it just gives enough meat to keep the currently failing strategy and death machine griding for a few more months.

Annnnd - It presents new and clear danger to the home front.

Doesn't mean the Kremlin isn't going to do it. They are way beyond the point of madness and hubris. But it won't work and it would serve other purposes than simply "winning" the war.

What do you think?

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[-] MutantTailThing@lemmy.world 22 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

The Russians barely have enough supplies for the army as is, but a new round of mobilisation will ensure a steady stream of meat to keep the grinder going for many years to come. The Poot has every interest in keeping the war going as long as possible. He fears if he admits defeat he goes out the window.

In short, I think a shitload of Russians are going to die.

[-] NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 14 points 1 week ago

...and then things got worse.

[-] thebestaquaman@lemmy.world 4 points 1 week ago

keep the grinder going for many years to come

With current russian losses at 30-40k/month, a 500k mobilisation is enough to feed the grinder for ≈ 12-16 months. Of course, they'll have standard recruitment on the side, but there's every reason to doubt that they'll be able to maintain anything close to the current recruitment rate if they're doing forced mobilisation simultaneously.

Imagine that though... at the current rate (which has been increasing lately), the russians are set to accumulate 350 000-500 000 casualties by this time next year. That's a decently sized city, all dead or wounded. I wish they would just stop...