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this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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According to one of the writers apparently 17% is supposed to be 'progress is 17% slower than expected', so the 34% figure here implies progress is 34% slower than expected, so that's actually worse
That wouldn't make sense, because 1.07 would mean progress is negative. I think they meant it as a multiplier? So 1.07 is almost exactly what the predicted, .17 is only 17% of what they expected.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter, because so much of the input numbers to these calcs are garbage.
Yeah that's what tripped me up, because if that was true then it'd make no sense why the percent of progress went up while the uplfit number went down.
The percentage isn't total progress to some key point of AI 2027, it is progress relative to their timeline. A constant 1.0 would be staying on track with their predictions, numbers less than that would be falling behind. So they are admitting the real numbers are falling behind their predictions more and more (while still not acknowledging their entire timelines was bs in the first place).
I read their spreadsheet and their % progress numbers in terms of AI capabilities is MASSIVELY skewed by Claude Mythos's METR score. The rest of it is below the mark if you exclude that.
They also admitted that the “China wakes up” prediction hasn’t happened yet, and Kokotajlo still claims that the scenario is “roughly on track” even though the US/China race is important for the scenario, and if China hasn’t woken up, that derails things pretty hard imo. So does OpenAI’s slowing down announcement