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this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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I read their spreadsheet and their % progress numbers in terms of AI capabilities is MASSIVELY skewed by Claude Mythos's METR score. The rest of it is below the mark if you exclude that.
They also admitted that the “China wakes up” prediction hasn’t happened yet, and Kokotajlo still claims that the scenario is “roughly on track” even though the US/China race is important for the scenario, and if China hasn’t woken up, that derails things pretty hard imo. So does OpenAI’s slowing down announcement