Yes.
ECI is the benchmark measurement from Epoch AI, and AECI is benchmark measurement from Anthropic
Yes.
ECI is the benchmark measurement from Epoch AI, and AECI is benchmark measurement from Anthropic
I looked again, and it seems they just flat out deleted every other ECI measurement except for Astra
Here’s what it looked like then


and heres what it looks like now

Which is suspect because all of those ECI measurements were behind pace
I looked through their methodology page (https://github.com/spicylemonade/AI-2027-tracker/blob/master/docs/methodology.md) and the only reason I can find is that AECI fits METR better, and that “The three ECI variants are too close to separate on 12 tests, so the chart keeps the simplest one.” Yet they say that ECI and AECI cannot be compared, so why keep Astra and get rid of all the other? They kept in multiple different models for Opus and Mythos, so why remove GPT 5.4 Pro, Sol and Opus’s ECI? Also shows that the website had AI slop assistance via Claude
AI 2027 tracker has updated again
-On the main page chart, they decided to map the Anthropic unreleased models from the METR report for some reason. Setting aside how mapping unreleased models is inherently flawed because we don’t have the full picture, the METR report also said that their measurements come with a high uncertainty
Onto the list of predictions
-Late 2026 is at 84%
-Still doing that weird thing where 80% is both partially accurate and confirmed accurate
-The stock market prediction should be lower, since it didn’t get anywhere near 30%
-Imo the AI narrative prediction should also be lower, since theres conflicting reports about AI being amazing/AI being trash all over mainstream news
-One prediction got a 100% score even though part of it didn’t happen (under OpenBrain releases Agent 1 mini: "The part that did not happen is OpenBrain blowing away the competition: several labs shipped cheap, near-frontier models within weeks of each other.")
-The key metrics seem to be mostly based on estimates rather than confirmed figures, so likely subject to change
Overall seems like they got a lot of ‘easy’ stuff right (ie business gurus shilling AI) but missed the harder stuff
Anthropic employee has had their brain destroyed by rationalist circlejerk

‘we need to make armageddon happen as fast as possible even though I dont think it will be very good. a trillion dollars please’
“our IPO will be supported by the people we are forcing to buy it’ is definitely a vote of confidence and not at all ominous
Sharing a gem from r/BetterOffline
"The next Google is dancing naked in front of you. If you can’t see the value of it, you don’t deserve to make money." For the first and hopefully last time: Dario Amodei, please put your willy away
At the Financial Times Future of AI Summit, the AI vendors were shocked that nobody likes them. They don’t really understand the objections — one CEO compared data center protestors to protests against masks for COVID.
Utterly ridiculous people who are now getting the wake up to reality they deserve
Anthropic is going ahead with their IPO
This is looking like its going to be a bloody disaster but if the world wants to feed my schadenfreude by all means keep it coming
Struck some gold on slobstack
Anthropic’s IPO roadshow could potentially start this week the ‘before thanksgiving’ due date is still in place