Texas

It's not just about the candidates, it's also the political environment they exist within. Trump is actively hamstringing Republicans with his unending fascist bullshit and immaculate talent for failure, and the DSA is invigorating turnout for Democrats. Talarico is also going up against Paxton, a man despised even among Conservatives. Talarico himself is eloquent without sounding too heady for rural ~~idiots~~ folk.

All of those things combined give us one of the best chances to flip Texas. If any one of those pieces was missing, as they have in the past, I think the "Texas is a red state" mentality would win over common sense, but we are fortunate to have this shitstorm brought about by one of the most inept and corrupt individuals to ever hold the office of the presidency.