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this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2026
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2011:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Scottish_Parliament_election
2016:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Scottish_Parliament_election
2021:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
2026:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Scottish_Parliament_election
Weasel words indeed. A majority of pro-indepdence MSPs for 15 years, should definitely result in the wheels of democracy moving forward. Instead we've been stuck in stagnation because of the "once in a generation" bollocks.
A generation is often taken to be 20 years. We're not far already. Personally I'd have Holyrood the power to decide to call a referendum on the topic, with the UK government being then bound to publish a section 39 within the current parliamentary term
You cant use SNP MSPs as an indication of support for independence, if it was a direct indicator then the majority in 2011 would have lead to a yes vote. There's a not insignificant number of SNP voters who just think labour are crap and want another leftish option rather than being diehard nationalists.
Same problem with WM elections. And Opinion Polls are pay for results. The only clear cut way seems to be a poll for a poll currently. Or: Holyrood is given that power and it is in manifestos.
Could make the same argument for MPs however. If the SNP stood on a Westminster vote for SNP is a vote for a referendum, how then could that mandate be ignored?
Guess what, they have ignored that!
I dont think they have stood on a single issue "a vote for us is a vote for a referendum and nothing else" manifesto have they? Getting a majority for that would be a strong indicator which would be hard to ignore, otherwise you come back to the same issue of not knowing how many voters were voting for that as opposed to other policies.
The only other way is for nationalist parties to keep winning majorities for long enough that "once in a generation" seems long enough ago to not be relevant, which at a bare minimum would be 20 years, but probably more like 25-30.
If I was Swinney my manifesto for next WM would consist of just a single page.
"The SNP has a strong and long record and we can demonstrate our values and principles through our long history of action, both in and out of government. The next election we stand on that great providence, as well as a single overriding issue that has defined our party and continues to dominate the political landscape, despite what our opponents would wish. That issue was asked of us a generation ago now and many things have changed in the world. It is now the time to revisit that decision.
"A vote for the SNP is a vote for a referendum on Scottish Independence."
Drop mic
If they ran on that and got a majority of Scottish MPs then absolutely, that would give a very strong mandate to call for another referendum.
You can always move the goalposts.
SNP consistantly make it clear in their manifesto a vote for them is a vote for independance.
One of the main propanganda points of the 2014 election was that an independant Scotland may not be allowed back in the EU, but then the UK left the EU anyway against Scotlands wishes only 2 years later.
A generation is defined as 15-30 years. I would certainly expect serious discussions about another referendum around 2030.