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Why Is It So Hard to Imagine the End of American Empire?
(jacobin.com)
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Are you critiquing 2 as a shallow understanding of history, or saying that even a shallow understanding is all that's necessary to be convinced? Because I agree with the former.
US debt is going to be an immediate and pressing problem in a few years at most. Countries are already pulling out of US bonds. The petrodollar is unsustainable without security guarantees in the Middle East, where Iran has already chased us out. Without the world loaning us money, the empire will collapse overnight.