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this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2026
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politics
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It is insane how inaccurate they have been this midterm.
I think it is the increase in voter participation.
https://uspollingdata.com/news/voter-registration-2026/
I think it’s all fake news for dems to get complacent. Just another dirty trick from the Rs
All of the polling institutions are pretty aligned this time around, so that kind of discredits the “fake news” argument. Too many independent sources are saying the same thing.
That said, polls are based on historical data. And polls might not do a good job of trying to account for the abnormal fuckery that has been happening this cycle. Off cycle gerrymandering, purges of democratic leaning voters, scares about mail-in voting, etc.
People shouldn’t assume this is a lock. People need to show up in high numbers.
People also forget that most campaigns want to be able to claim they are ahead in the polls. Strong poll numbers can lead to the bandwagon effect, while trailing poll numbers can cause people to give up.
Too many people remember Hillary losing in 2016 but fail to consider the specific context of her being an unpopular candidate. Believing that your side is going to win isn't normally a reason to stay home, unless you have some objection to the turd sandwich your side nominated.
So be encouraged by good polls, don't be discouraged by bad polls, and then get off your and vote no matter what the polls say.
IMHO, Clinton v Trump is also the perfect example of normies not understanding how statistics and probability works.
Trump had a nearly 30% chance of winning. That’s a legit possibility of winning. If powerball had a 30% chance of winning, everyone would be running to buy a ticket.
People saw Clinton at 70% and seemed to think that was a lock. 70% odd isn’t a 100% chance of winning. It’s 70%.
That was just the FiveThirtyEight model. Most other models had Clinton in the high 90’s.
Which was wild because a lot of the polls were Clinton around +4 with about a +/-4 margin.
I remember Silver shitting on those high 90’s models because they clearly weren’t baking in enough room for the margin of error.