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Move to rejoin EU among options for UK, says Burnham
(www.bbc.co.uk)
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this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2026
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UK Politics
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General Discussion for politics in the UK.
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Selective with your data much?
https://www.nber.org/digest/202602/measuring-brexits-economic-toll-united-kingdom?page=1&perPage=50
Me select? You're comparing 1 country versus the average of 26 lol.
Your other graph is a synthetic counter factual made from bullshit doppelganger models and surveys.
France is our doppelganger. They didn't leave the EU, we did.
All that happened is we swapped dirty polluting goods trade for high margin clean services exports
If you believe France is a useful single doppelgänger you honestly need to read a bit more.
Before 2016 the UK was more open and more finance-heavy (about 7% of output vs 4%), it ran a current-account deficit of about 5% of GDP (France was near balance), and its labour market was more flexible (about 74% employment vs 64%).
France was also in the euro, more state-cushioned (public spending about 57% of GDP vs 40%) and more EU-oriented in its trade.
On almost every channel Brexit worked through (sterling, investment, services trade, migration), France would have responded differently.
I think you’re picking data to suit your opinions. And you’re diverging from the vast majority of economists when attempting to compare the counter-factual case. That alone should give you pause.
It's the most similar economy and didn't leave the EU. It's a better proxy than sticking bits of New Zealand's and America's economy into a doppelganger model.
Ok, that’s a fine opinion. Just know that it contradicts what 99.999% of all economists would say. But what do they know, eh? I think people have had enough of experts!
They are using synthetic counter factuals. There is no control. There is no precedent to leaving the EU.
There is no guarantee that the UK would have not still had major disruption from a narrow remain vote
0.29% of UK companies stopped exporting to the EU. Big deal.
I have zero idea where you get these numbers from.
https://www.lse.ac.uk/news/latest-news-from-lse/l-december-2024/brexit-reduced-goods-exports-by-27bn
https://www.cityam.com/brexit-onslaught-deepens-as-a-third-of-all-uk-firms-exporting-to-eu-simply-vanish-due-to-red-tape-knockout/
Somewhere between 15%-30% of all exporters to the EU stopped after Brexit.
But this is a waste of your time - I can sense that data isn’t really going to convince.
At least you can enjoy those bendy bananas.
There are something like 5m UK businesses. A tiny fraction of them actually exported to the EU. And 15-30% of that sub fraction stopped exporting.
Meanwhile UK services exports has increased by over 75% since 2016
We just swapped high carbon polluting goods trade for high margin low carbon services
Just in time for carbon border taxes.
Net win.