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Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2026
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Source?
the round-one polls had Lula leading Flávio by 3 points. the result was instead Flávio leading Lula by 2 points. That's a big miss.
I'm not good at Brazillian politics either, but I'm going to research the entire makeup of the 8%:
Excluding Cury and Barão, I count 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish, or against 0.19% if we include Barão in the latter count, or against 3.05% even if we include Cury in the latter (which I quite doubt we can). If we add these numbers to the first-round results of Flávlo vs. Lula, Flávlo'd have a 6-point, 6-point, or 4-point lead.
Source?
Any recent poll. You can search them here:
https://www.planopolitico.com.br/agregador/presidente/
Also, every single polling institute said the prediction for Flavio was underestimated. On basically every poll.
I can't find that in the polls you linked. They seem to accord with what I said: They showed a 3-point Lula lead until 28 September, and the final averages have a 1.6-point Lula lead, while Flávio Bolsonaro in fact won by 2 points.
I think it's reasonable to assume the round 2 polls also underestimate Flávio to a similar degree, as American (the continents') polls have done with alt-right candidates time and time again. I do not trust you saying this means the 8% will majorly vote for Lula when the evidence above points otherwise, and the media doesn't either.