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submitted 1 week ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

Progressive voters and supporters of incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva left reeling after far-right surge

Flávio Bolsonaro is in pole position to win Brazil’s presidential election, after a far-right tsunami propelled him to a shock first-round victory over the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leaving progressive voters reeling.

The 45-year-old rightwing candidate received 56.1m votes to Lula’s 53.8m – 47.03% to 45.16% – meaning the 80-year-old leftwinger has a mountain to climb if he is to bounce back in the second round on 25 October. Never, since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, has the first-round runner-up managed to turn the game around and win the second ballot.

“Miracles are possible in politics. But I don’t see that happening,” the political scientist Miguel Lago said of Lula’s chances of snapping back. “I don’t see Flávio losing this election now.”

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[-] aphonefriend@lemmy.dbzer0.com 143 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Starting to feel more and more like humanity doesn't deserve a happy ending.

[-] inari@piefed.zip 23 points 1 week ago

Humanity seems to be making sure that's the case

[-] Jhex@lemmy.world 10 points 1 week ago

oh it certainly does not

[-] DrDickHandler@lemmy.world 7 points 1 week ago

It just reminds us that a good % of humans are still animals.

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[-] Sanctus@anarchist.nexus 85 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Think this is organic or mostly the result of US election interference? No way Brazilians are watching the far right clown show around the world and saying "I want in"

[-] Asafum@lemmy.world 79 points 1 week ago

No way Brazilians are watching the far right clown show around the world and saying “I want in”

Literally as you said, far right clown show around the world as in: everyone is seeing it and saying "yes please, I want some of that too." it's unfuckingbelievable how this shit keeps happening... It's absolutely going to be the decade (or more) of the far reich. :/

[-] TheCriticalMember@aussie.zone 45 points 1 week ago

No way Brazilians are watching the far right clown show around the world and saying “I want in”

Frustratingly, it's entirely possible. We're seeing a similar thing in Australia with a bunch of imbecilic shills for billionaires and mining companies polling better than they ever have even though they've basically promised to be an Aussie version of the trump administration. We're all fucked, and it's just as much the fault of our friends, neighbours, and families as it is the oligarchs.

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[-] someguy3@lemmy.world 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

People don't think that far. "It's the economy, stupid."

[-] driving_crooner@lemmy.eco.br 3 points 1 week ago

Brazilian economy is doing OK. Growing higher that predicted expectations, low inflation compared with the rest of the world (the government determine gasoline and Diesel prices so it's shielded from international shocks). But people live on algorithmic bubbles that show them violence, crime and rage bait 24/7, all of that plus "I like Lula but my pastor told me to vote Bolsonaro" evangelicals

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[-] theacharnian@lemmy.ca 29 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Presidentialism is a dead-end strand of democracy. Progressives living in such systems everywhere should be pushing to reform it to parliamentarianism. No one election should have such cosmic level effects.

[-] ttayh@lemmy.zip 6 points 1 week ago

Absolutely not the case. Maybe where you are and in the so-called first world. Parlamentarianism would be a huge boon for the right in Brasil. Hell, things have progressively sucked since the 2016 coup cause the parliment has increased its powers a fuck ton

[-] theacharnian@lemmy.ca 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

My perspective is the European periphery (Greece) and Canada. I don't know in particular what the Brazilian parliament is doing. I suspect (feel free to correct me) that within a presidential system, where parliament can be weaponized against a personalist presidency, sure it can become a vehicle for irresponsible brinksmanship, just like in the US. But the moment a parliament becomes itself responsible for governing, when things cannot be blamed on some singular President, when governments can lose the confidence of the parliament and elections can be triggered things change and parliaments have to start taking shit seriously.

That said, Parliamentarianism is not the perfect democratic system, it's just better than Presidentialism. It is also not a guarantee against fascism (cf Hungary, Italy), it is just harder to subvert them. It is no coincidence that democracies that slide to authoritarianism tend to reform themselves into presidential systems, like Turkey. And of course, the real question is what is even better than both, how do we perfect democracy beyond 19th century political technologies, but that's a different discussion.

[-] jpreston2005@lemmy.world 19 points 1 week ago

A lot of voters didn't bother voting in the first round, because they knew that it would come down to a second. Brazil has like 20 or so parties, and one has to get over 50% of the votes to win. Just gotta wait for the second round, no point in getting worked up about this one, everyone knew it was going to come down to these two.

[-] Aatube@lemmy.dbzer0.com 19 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

At the same time, the vast majority of the 8% who voted for someone other than these two in the first round voted for candidates more right-wing than Bolsonaro. Is there really no good way to remedy a January 6?

[-] NekoKoneko@lemmy.world 8 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

This is opposite to what I'm seeing.

Here's the important chart:

From this, the 1.87% difference can be overcome by any of the 3rd-4th-5th place parties. Since I'm unfamiliar with Brazilian politics, Wikipedia says Avante is center-left-leaning (voted for Lula previously), Missao is hard-right-wing, and SDP is confusing but appears to now be center-left-wing. So if we are now pushing their voters to polarized ends, the right- and left-wing runners-up cancel each other out, and the remaining party's votes could swing the election.

The problem will be if the weaker-left two parties divide their votes between Lula and Flavio, and the hard-right Missao goes to Flavio 100-ish%, then Flavio still wins. Or some other problem a real Brazilian will point out since I'm just piecing this together from Wikipedia.

[-] Aatube@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

I’ve analyzed all of the candidates appearing in first-round results: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/28475259 My takeaway is 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish. If you search, you’ll also see most news outlets making the same predictions I am.

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[-] demonsword@lemmy.world 5 points 1 week ago

There is no candidate more to the right of Bolsonaro. He is the frothing-in-the-mouth, extreme-far-right candidate.

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Dear Brazil, why didn’t you learn from the USA’s mistakes?

[-] mere@piefed.social 11 points 1 week ago

In here, US subverts everything with algorithmic manipulation, voters don't do any reality checks. Meta (IG, WA & FB) is the main source of information and communication.

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[-] mere@piefed.social 17 points 1 week ago

And if you wanna know more about Flávio Bolsonaro, with whom he's hanging out, watch this, it's dubbed, but it's worth watching.

[-] someguy3@lemmy.world 12 points 1 week ago
[-] mofongo@discuss.tchncs.de 11 points 1 week ago

Voting is mandatory in Brazil

[-] SkaveRat@discuss.tchncs.de 3 points 1 week ago

What's the penalty if you don't?

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[-] mere@piefed.social 8 points 1 week ago

p5R436HowQmDhSQ.webp

That's what Lula's voters think about this guy

[-] WanderWisley@lemmy.world 7 points 1 week ago

Hopefully the people of Brazil can stand up and fight back against this sad situation. You are not alone in this BS we can and will overcome this.

[-] DrDickHandler@lemmy.world 8 points 1 week ago

Probably won't. Right wing dumbfuckery is a world wide trend.

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[-] Grimy@lemmy.world 6 points 1 week ago

They should have hanged his dad.

[-] AI_toothbrush@lemmy.zip 5 points 1 week ago

Its insane because brazillians are so online and i know so many nice brazillians who im sure voted lula even if hes still corrupt and not a good candidate but much better than Bolsonaro. Its just insane to see this literal clown get elected.

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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2026
160 points (97.1% liked)

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