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Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2026
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A lot of voters didn't bother voting in the first round, because they knew that it would come down to a second. Brazil has like 20 or so parties, and one has to get over 50% of the votes to win. Just gotta wait for the second round, no point in getting worked up about this one, everyone knew it was going to come down to these two.
At the same time, the vast majority of the 8% who voted for someone other than these two in the first round voted for candidates more right-wing than Bolsonaro. Is there really no good way to remedy a January 6?
This is opposite to what I'm seeing.
Here's the important chart:
From this, the 1.87% difference can be overcome by any of the 3rd-4th-5th place parties. Since I'm unfamiliar with Brazilian politics, Wikipedia says Avante is center-left-leaning (voted for Lula previously), Missao is hard-right-wing, and SDP is confusing but appears to now be center-left-wing. So if we are now pushing their voters to polarized ends, the right- and left-wing runners-up cancel each other out, and the remaining party's votes could swing the election.
The problem will be if the weaker-left two parties divide their votes between Lula and Flavio, and the hard-right Missao goes to Flavio 100-ish%, then Flavio still wins. Or some other problem a real Brazilian will point out since I'm just piecing this together from Wikipedia.
I’ve analyzed all of the candidates appearing in first-round results: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/28475259 My takeaway is 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish. If you search, you’ll also see most news outlets making the same predictions I am.
That sounds correct, left votes are very centered around Lula.
Which is also another major problem for the left in the future - he's 80 and there's absolutely no good successor to inherit those votes (partially his own fault too, he and his party never liked to share).
Yup, your analysis is better, because you look at the specific candidate and I just looked at the party.
You're wrong. Curry is a self help author and clearly solidly on the right, Caiado is a carreer politician and on the right, only difference is that he's an oportunist
There is no candidate more to the right of Bolsonaro. He is the frothing-in-the-mouth, extreme-far-right candidate.
https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/28475259
Politics is crazier than one’d think.
Yeah, I know it well, since I was born in Brazil and lived here my entire life. Things never looked so bleak, not even when the (current jailed) Bolsofather won his presidency 8 years ago
The majority of those 8% intend to vote for Lula on the second round, where both Flavio and Lula are tied on the polls and neither is "poised to win".
Also, international press is incompetent.
Also also, WTF does "more right-wing" than alt-right means?
Source?
the round-one polls had Lula leading Flávio by 3 points. the result was instead Flávio leading Lula by 2 points. That's a big miss.
I'm not good at Brazillian politics either, but I'm going to research the entire makeup of the 8%:
Excluding Cury and Barão, I count 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish, or against 0.19% if we include Barão in the latter count, or against 3.05% even if we include Cury in the latter (which I quite doubt we can). If we add these numbers to the first-round results of Flávlo vs. Lula, Flávlo'd have a 6-point, 6-point, or 4-point lead.
Source?
Any recent poll. You can search them here:
https://www.planopolitico.com.br/agregador/presidente/
Also, every single polling institute said the prediction for Flavio was underestimated. On basically every poll.
I can't find that in the polls you linked. They seem to accord with what I said: They showed a 3-point Lula lead until 28 September, and the final averages have a 1.6-point Lula lead, while Flávio Bolsonaro in fact won by 2 points.
I think it's reasonable to assume the round 2 polls also underestimate Flávio to a similar degree, as American (the continents') polls have done with alt-right candidates time and time again. I do not trust you saying this means the 8% will majorly vote for Lula when the evidence above points otherwise, and the media doesn't either.
That french invention, that gravity assisted rail-mount blade system, is quite effective even as a deterrent
So you execute Jair, and Flávio does this, plus some other Bolsonarist executes Lula.
I was replying to the last question, i.e. "is there no way to remedy a Jan 6?".
Traitors who want to upend democracy deserve no less.
Supporters of the traitors then should either shut the fuck up or risk losing their heads as well.
I am aware of what you were saying. I responded to it.