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Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2026
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This is opposite to what I'm seeing.
Here's the important chart:
From this, the 1.87% difference can be overcome by any of the 3rd-4th-5th place parties. Since I'm unfamiliar with Brazilian politics, Wikipedia says Avante is center-left-leaning (voted for Lula previously), Missao is hard-right-wing, and SDP is confusing but appears to now be center-left-wing. So if we are now pushing their voters to polarized ends, the right- and left-wing runners-up cancel each other out, and the remaining party's votes could swing the election.
The problem will be if the weaker-left two parties divide their votes between Lula and Flavio, and the hard-right Missao goes to Flavio 100-ish%, then Flavio still wins. Or some other problem a real Brazilian will point out since I'm just piecing this together from Wikipedia.
I’ve analyzed all of the candidates appearing in first-round results: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/28475259 My takeaway is 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish. If you search, you’ll also see most news outlets making the same predictions I am.
Yup, your analysis is better, because you look at the specific candidate and I just looked at the party.
That sounds correct, left votes are very centered around Lula.
Which is also another major problem for the left in the future - he's 80 and there's absolutely no good successor to inherit those votes (partially his own fault too, he and his party never liked to share).
You're wrong. Curry is a self help author and clearly solidly on the right, Caiado is a carreer politician and on the right, only difference is that he's an oportunist