Axios never has a signup wall for me, but I’ve seen complaints about it here. For those it does:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqe8r5l7n92jo
The context of this: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-9-2026/
US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 9 to waive sanctions on Russian diesel to increase diesel supply to the United States’ and global markets — a decision which will fund Russia’s war effort and protract Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1] Trump stated that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States’ and global markets, another 500,000 tons in November 2026, and one million tons “immediately thereafter” and noted that Russian oil refineries can supply another three million tons of diesel “in a short time” depending on their conditions. The US Treasury Department issued a temporary general license, at Trump‘s direction, to allow Russian diesel supply to the global market.[2] Russian exports accounted for only 9.5 percent of the global diesel export supply in 2025, and the Russian Federation temporarily banned diesel exports on July 8, 2026 as Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaigns against Russia’s oil refining capacity and intermediate-range campaign against Russian logistics, including the deliveries of fuel to occupied Ukraine and the frontline.[3] The US’ decision to allow Russia to supply diesel to the global markets, including to the United States, will support the Kremlin’s efforts to stonewall US efforts to end the war, as the profits from diesel exports will enable Russia to continue funding its war in Ukraine. The US decision to grant Russia a waiver to export diesel also represents a unilateral US concession in its negotiation posture with Russia, when Russia has offered the US no concessions in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Oh my. Pretty obvious that Trumps buddies have shares of Putin's oil companies. When Ukraine started to hit them - they go bitching to Trump about it. At this point we had stupid narrative "Ukraine is hitting Russian refineries and driving prices up on the world market". That narrative is really dumb because it just sharing light on main elephant in the room - who is supplying sanctioned oil from Russia to the world market and why US president is helping those? - well, answer is obvious - guys connected to Trumps administration. And now they are going even further - they are legalizing their existing interest in Putin's oil industry by that stupid so called "deal' and thus - they no longer can stay formally neutral in this war and participate in negotiations as mediators. Next step gonna be - no intel, no Starlink, no PURL and if everything is bad - US NAVY defending Russian shadow fleet here and there. But there is a bright side - we will find out who exactly owns Russian shares and assets from Trump admin. Or maybe Trump just TACO as always and nothing gonna change.
Possible, but a worst case scenario. Trump has the memory and attention span of a toddler. It's possible the diplomats can fix this with smart talks.
Also, I think the US navy has their hands full with all the daily crimes and war crimes being demanded of them. I read about depleted ammunition stockpiles, ships being out too long without getting resupplied, etc. Other nations are still treating the sanctions seriously and actively take out shadow fleet vessels. So I doubt the US navy will cause international incidents with those; and even if they do, they aren't in top shape, might lose a lot of fights.
Hope so. The very fact, that this scenario has become a possibility worth of discussing is quite bad on its own.