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Anthropic's IPO Is Cratering
(futurism.com)
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this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2026
421 points (99.3% liked)
Fuck AI
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As "low" as 1.1T
I guess thats priming in effect? My guess is original target was 1T, so they primed public with 2T...
If they are 80 billion in the hole shouldn't the valuation be negative 80 billion?
If they stopped now yeah, but those are rookie numbers. They’re gonna evaporate way more money than that before they finally crash and burn.
No, you have to consider future valuation. They just need to run a loss for as long as it takes to eliminate their competition (humans maintaining independent thought and learning capability) at which point they can extract whatever price they want.
All true! But they'll still need customers willing to pay that price, and that's not lookin' so good at the moment.
On one hand you need to consider future growth so the value is high because growth is high.
On the other hand the path to profitability is going to be brutal as they need to compete with Chinese models which are often on par or sometimes better (kling v suno) than the yank models. Often the Chinese models are open source too so that helps consumers, competitors and self hosters.
On the other other hand the us government could just outlaw competition in the us market and create a regional monopoly/ oligopoly for whichever companies it wants.
On the other other other hand (I am an octopus, please don't turn me into calamari, I have a family and friends) early movers in new industries are rarely the ones who make it big. If you invested in MySpace or AOL having seen a vision from the future where social media took over the internet you would be both correct and broke.
TLDR: traditional financial modeling has been thrown out the window years ago for tech companies. SpaceX is basically guaranteed to lose money for IPO buyers if you account for the time value of money. https://futurism.com/space/math-spacex-ipo-virtually-impossible
Only if you think they are going to stop all operations right this second and give away all their assets.
However, if you think they are going to make enough money to pay off the debt (or at least make it seem like they can) then their valuation is proportionate to what happens if things go well VS what happens if things go poorly.
I don't think they're that clever, I think they missed the wave.