Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 8th November 2026 (awful.systems)

submitted 6 days ago by BlueMonday1984@awful.systems to c/techtakes@awful.systems

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Welcome to November, and welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this.)

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[-] lurker@awful.systems 5 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

AI 2027 tracker has updated again

-On the main page chart, they decided to map the Anthropic unreleased models from the METR report for some reason. Setting aside how mapping unreleased models is inherently flawed because we don’t have the full picture, the METR report also said that their measurements come with a high uncertainty

Onto the list of predictions

-Late 2026 is at 84%

-Still doing that weird thing where 80% is both partially accurate and confirmed accurate

-The stock market prediction should be lower, since it didn’t get anywhere near 30%

-Imo the AI narrative prediction should also be lower, since theres conflicting reports about AI being amazing/AI being trash all over mainstream news

-One prediction got a 100% score even though part of it didn’t happen (under OpenBrain releases Agent 1 mini: "The part that did not happen is OpenBrain blowing away the competition: several labs shipped cheap, near-frontier models within weeks of each other.")

-The key metrics seem to be mostly based on estimates rather than confirmed figures, so likely subject to change

Overall seems like they got a lot of ‘easy’ stuff right (ie business gurus shilling AI) but missed the harder stuff

this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2026

17 points (94.7% liked)

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