this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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Russia analyst on Al Jazeera talking about revolution
It's started by the military, so it's a coup, maybe a revolt. In my definition, a revolution is done by the people, not the military.
It's kind of a grey area since Wagner are mercenaries and not traditional military, no?
Yeah, it's a private mercenary group. The security forces/Military police are set up all along the road to Moscow. So, the technical military is still with Putin, kinda. They literally just rolled up on that southern command, right after the head of the MoD fled the building. It's bizarre.
It's a civil revo-coup-tion!
(Also, I know very little about military stuff and even I can tell something big is going down.)
I think you're right but since large part of the people have been conscripted... Maybe you can call it a revolution as well?
I'd say it could lead to some kind of revolutionary movement, but for that it would be helpful if there was already some kind of organized resistance, which I think is not the case. It's definitely a test of Putin's power and will show how good repression and propaganda have been. I'm afraid it's been good and if there is a shift in power, it will just be new assholes with money and weapons, not a revolution. But we'll see, it's definitely interesting to watch.
If you're interested in resistance movements and when they're likely to succeed, here's a good start: https://fullspectrumresistance.org/
The wagner group and the guys behind it are supposedly even more radical than putin is - if they get in power, the war on Ukraine will get much, much bloodier very quickly.
Not THE military. A private military company, rather. Closer would be if Blackwater (academi? Xe? Idk what their current name is) did it in the US.
I don't even know what a good term for it would be. Military coup usually means the country's own military.