this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2023
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Probably a good chunk, I don't mean to be pessimistic either but that's how it usually works on "big" movements.
Some people follow the flow because they're caught into the enthusiasm of the moment while not being actually convinced about what they're doing, those people are highly likely to go back when things are back to normal (tho in my opinion reddit will never be "normal" again).
How many they are is impossible to tell.
The blackout is only the first wave, there will be another one IMO when 3rd party apps actually shutdown (June 30th), after that, things will settle and population on lemmy will lower, that's not a bad thing IMO, it doesn't do any good to have people here that don't actually want to be here.
As for me, since I joined I'm doing my best to be involved in lemmy communities with the specific purpose of not missing reddit anymore and not care anymore when they'll break old.reddit (they will like their doing with the API).
I already feel at home here, I'm not going drastic as to nuke my reddit account or anything, tho I'll most probably make a GDPR request and leave for good.