In general, with a bit of a lag, when people can borrow more because of low interest rates, house prices shoot up. When people can borrow less, house sales plummet (people don't tend to sell when they can't get what they paid for it, so sales fall instead as people stay put - though prices will fall a bit as some people will still need to sell but buyers won't have much to choose from so they don't fall back to where they were).

Stuff had a good article on this a while back (perhaps 2 or 3 years) where they compared I think average mortgage payments based on average interest rates for average houses each year going back 20 or 30 years, and I think it was adjusted for average wages as well. But do you think I can find it? Of course not.

[–] BalpeenHammer 4 points 6 months ago (5 children)

I would need to see some peer reviewed study on it. You know the old saying. For every economist there exists an equal and opposite economist.

[–] Xcf456 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

A Google search on it pulls up a couple of studies, one from Germany, one from Australia appearing to show opposite results lol (also some commentary from the NZ Treasury, but not backed up from a quick scroll). It'd be interesting to know if someone's evaluated our ones.

https://www.google.com/search?q=buyer%20subsidies%20house%20prices%20effect%20study

So I guess it goes to my earlier point about feeling mixed about it. I'd suspect they have a far greater equalising effect when the market isnt so constrained that the subsidies can just can be capitalised into prices, so it might depend on the broader market a bit. And so pairing them with a massive state house building programme and allowing density with good public transport should go alongside. You know, all the stuff this government has cancelled, cut or rolled back ;)

[–] Dave 2 points 6 months ago

The interest rates affecting house pricing is because lower interest rates increase demand. Solving the house price issue doesn't mean keeping interest rates high, it can be influenced on the other side, supply. Which is what you've mentioned, the government could build state housing to increase supply of warm dry houses, and this could be a driver of lower prices if done right.

I also feel the need to point out that house prices falling is good for almost all owner occupiers, even though it's unintuative. And since you have to pay off the same million dollar mortgage regardless of if house prices go up or down, we definitely come into the territory of that trolley problem meme with the trolley flattening a bunch of people and then saying it's unfair to those people if we stop the trolley now before it squashes the next group - even though whether it stops or not has no impact on the ones already squashed.

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