this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2025
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.

This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.

For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community

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Need to let loose a primal scream without collecting footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid: Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this.)

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[–] BigMuffin69@awful.systems 23 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

Deep thinker asks why?

Thus spoketh the Yud: "The weird part is that DOGE is happening 0.5-2 years before the point where you actually could get an AGI cluster to go in and judge every molecule of government. Out of all the American generations, why is this happening now, that bare bit too early?"

Yud, you sweet naive smol uwu baby~~esian~~ boi, how gullible do you have to be to believe that a) tminus 6 months to AGI kek (do people track these dog shit predictions?) b) the purpose of DOGE is just accountability and definitely not the weaponized manifestation of techno oligarchy ripping apart our society for the copper wiring in the walls?

[–] istewart@awful.systems 17 points 1 day ago (2 children)

bahahahaha "judge every molecule." I can't believe I ever took this guy even slightly seriously.

[–] sailor_sega_saturn@awful.systems 11 points 1 day ago (3 children)

The worst part is I can't tell if that's not meant to be taken literally or if it is.

[–] blakestacey@awful.systems 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

He retweeted somebody saying this:

The cheat code to reading Yudkowsky- at least if you're not doing death-of-the-author stuff- is that he believes the AI doom stuff with completely literal sincerity. To borrow Orwell's formulation, he believes in it the way he believes in China.

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[–] froztbyte@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

"judge every molecule" and "simulation hypothesis" probably have a bit of a fling going

[–] blakestacey@awful.systems 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

"The AI is attuned to every molecular vibration and can reconstruct you by extrapolation from a piece of fairy cake" is a necessary premise of the Basilisk that they've spent all that time saying they don't believe in.

[–] istewart@awful.systems 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Quantum computing will enable the AGI to entangle with all surrounding molecular vibrations! I saw another press release today

[–] froztbyte@awful.systems 4 points 1 day ago

ah, the novel QC RSA attack: shaking the algorithm so much it gets annoyed and gives up the plaintext out of desperation

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[–] Soyweiser@awful.systems 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

An extreme Boss Baby tweet.

[–] blakestacey@awful.systems 11 points 1 day ago (22 children)

Kelsey Piper continues to bluecheck:

What would some good unifying demands be for a hostile takeover of the Democratic party by centrists/moderates?

As opposed to the spineless collaborators who run it now?

We should make acquiring ID documents free and incredibly easy and straightforward and then impose voter ID laws, paper ballots and ballot security improvements along with an expansion of polling places so everyone participates but we lay the 'was it a fair election' qs to rest.

Presuming that Republicans ever asked "was it a fair election?!" in good faith, like a true jabroni.

[–] maol@awful.systems 10 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

unifying demands

hostile takeover

Pick one, you can't have both.

[–] swlabr@awful.systems 8 points 1 day ago

What would some good unifying demands be for a hostile takeover of the Democratic party by centrists/moderates?

me, taking this at face value, and understanding the political stances of the democrats, and going by my definition of centrist/moderate that is more correct than whatever the hell Kelsey Piper thinks it means: Oh, this would actually push the democrats left.

Anyway, jesus christ I regret clicking on that name and reading. How the fuck is anyone this stupid. Vox needs to be burned down.

[–] Soyweiser@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago

Presuming that Republicans ever asked “was it a fair election?!” in good faith, like a true jabroni.

Imagine saying this after the birther movement remained when the birth certificate was shown. "Just admit you didnt fuck pigs, and this pigfucking will be gone".

[–] froztbyte@awful.systems 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

those opinions should come with a whiplash warning, fucking hell

can’t wait to once again hear that someone is sure we’re “just overreacting” and that ~~star of david~~ ~~passbooks~~ voter ID laws will be totes fine. I’m sure it’ll be a really lovely conversation with a perfectly sensible and caring human. :|

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[–] swlabr@awful.systems 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

TIL musk has a nobel peace prize nomination for this year

[–] cstross@wandering.shop 10 points 1 day ago (2 children)

@swlabr @techtakes Anybody can nominate: the true sign that the simulation has been handed over to drunken frat boys will be if he *wins*.

[–] swlabr@awful.systems 6 points 1 day ago

I thought it might be that kind of deal. I learned of this when I saw a pair of op-eds, one saying a W is deserved and the other saying the nom was insane.

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[–] jax@awful.systems 8 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Quality sneers in these (one, two) response posts. The original posts that these are critiquing are very silly and not worth your time, but the criticism here addresses many of the typical AI hype talking points.

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[–] nightsky@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago (9 children)

Interesting slides: Peter Gutmann - Why Quantum Cryptanalysis is Bollocks

Since quantum computers are far outside my expertise, I didn't realize how far-fetched it currently is to factor large numbers with quantum computers. I already knew it's not near-future stuff for practical attacks on e.g. real-world RSA keys, but I didn't know it's still that theoretical. (Although of course I lack the knowledge to assess whether that presentation is correct in its claims.)

But also, while reading it, I kept thinking how many of the broader points it makes also apply to the AI hype... (for example, the unfounded belief that game-changing breakthroughs will happen soon).

[–] blakestacey@awful.systems 13 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Comparing quantum computing to time machines or faster-than-light travel is unfair. In order for the latter to exist, our understanding of physics would have to be wrong in a major way. Quantum computing presumes that our understanding of physics is correct. Making it work is "only" an engineering problem, in the sense that Newton's laws say that a rocket can reach the Moon, so the Apollo program was "only" a engineering project. But breaking any ciphers with it is a long way off.

[–] nightsky@awful.systems 5 points 1 day ago

Comparing quantum computing to time machines or faster-than-light travel is unfair.

I didn't interpret the slides as an attack on quantum computing per se, but rather an attack on over-enthusiastic assertions of its near-future implications. If the likelihood of near-future QC breaking real-world cryptography is so extremely low, it's IMO okay to make a point by comparing it to things which are (probably) impossible. It's an exaggeration of course, and as you point out the analogy isn't correct in that way, but I still think it makes a good point.

What I find insightful about the comparison is that it puts the finger on a particular brain worm of the tech world: the unshakeable belief that every technical development will grow exponentially in its capabilities. So as soon as the most basic version of something is possible, it is believed that the most advanced forms of it will follow soon after. I think this belief was created because it's what actually happened with semiconductors, and of course the bold (in its day) prediction that was Moore's law, and then later again, the growth of the internet.

And now this thinking is applied to everything all the time, including quantum computers (and, as I pointed to in my earlier post, AI), driven by hype, by FOMO, by the fear of "this time I don't want to be among those who didn't recognize it early". But there is no inherent reason why a development should necessarily follow such a trajectory. That doesn't mean of course that it's impossible or won't get there eventually, just that it may take much more time.

So in that line of thought, I think it's ok to say "hey look everyone, we have very real actual problems in cryptography that need solving right now, and on the other hand here's the actual state and development of QC which you're all worrying about, but that stuff is so far away you might just as well worry about time machines, so please let's focus more on the actual problems of today." (that's at least how I interpret the presentation).

[–] froztbyte@awful.systems 5 points 1 day ago

heh yup. I think the most recent one (somewhere in the last year) was something like 12-bit rsa? stupendously far off from being a meaningful thing

I’ll readily admit to being a cryptography mutt and a qc know-barely-anything, and even from my limited understanding the assessment of where people are at (with how many qubits they’ve managed to achieve in practical systems) everything is hilariously woefully far off ito attacks

that doesn’t entirely invalidate pqc and such (since the notion there is not merely defending against today/soon but also a significant timeline)

one thing I am curious about (and which you might’ve seen or be able to talk about, blake): is there any kind of known correlation between qubits and viable attacks? I realize part of this quite strongly depends on the attack method as well, but off the cuff I have a guess (“intuition” is probably the wrong word) that it probably scales some weird way (as opposed to linear/log/exp)

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[–] sc_griffith@awful.systems 8 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

I've been listening to faster and worse (see https://awful.systems/comment/6216748 ) and I like it so I wanted to give it ups.

(I think this and the memory palace are the only micro podcasts I've listened to. idk why it isn't a more common format)

[–] fasterandworse@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago (2 children)

thanks! It might be uncommon because it's a real pain in the ass to keep it short. Every time I make one I stress about how easily my point can be misunderstood because there are so few details. Good way to practice the art of moving on

[–] sc_griffith@awful.systems 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

if it's any reassurance, i've understood all your points perfectly! you're basically making an argument for all UI to be more apple-like

[–] fasterandworse@awful.systems 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

holy shit, I really don't know if this is real or a joke

[–] sc_griffith@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)
[–] fasterandworse@awful.systems 6 points 1 day ago

really, thanks for listening! It's fun making them and nice to know they are being listened to

[–] dgerard@awful.systems 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

this is also why pivot to AI is mostly 200-250 words, not 1200 or 2000 or 8000

[–] fasterandworse@awful.systems 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's probably more sensible for me to try writing short bits too, instead of faffing around with videos

[–] dgerard@awful.systems 4 points 1 day ago

apparently video is just huuuuge

[–] froztbyte@awful.systems 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

ran into this earlier (via techmeme, I think?), and I just want to vent

“The biggest challenge the industry is facing is actually talent shortage. There is a gap. There is an aging workforce, where all of the experts are going to retire in the next five or six years. At the same time, the next generation is not coming in, because no one wants to work in manufacturing.”

"whole industries have fucked up on actually training people for a run going on decades, but no the magic sparkles will solve the problem!!!11~"

But when these new people do enter the space, he added, they will know less than the generation that came before, because they will be more interchangeable and responsible for more (due to there being fewer of them).

I forget where I read/saw it, but sometime in the last year I encountered someone talking about "the collapse of ..." wrt things like "travel agent", which is a thing that's mostly disappeared (on account of various kinds of services enabling previously-impossible things, e.g. direct flights search, etc etc) but not been fully replaced. so now instead of popping a travel agent a loose set of plans and wants then getting back options, everyone just has to carry that burden themselves, badly

and that last paragraph reminds me of exactly that nonsense. and the weird "oh don't worry, skilled repair engineers can readily multiclass" collapse equivalence really, really, really grates

sometimes I think these motherfuckers should be made to use only machines maintained under their bullshit processes, etc. after a very small handful of years they'll come around. but as it stands now it'll probably be a very "for me not for thee" setup

[–] froztbyte@awful.systems 5 points 2 days ago

what pisses me off even more is that parts of the idea behind this are actually quite cool and worthwhile! just..... the entire goddamn pitch. ew.

[–] dgerard@awful.systems 24 points 3 days ago

https://mastodon.gamedev.place/@lritter/114001505488538547

master: welcome to my Smart Home

student: wow. how is the light controlled?

master: with this on-off switch

student: i don't see a motor to close the blinds

master: there is none

student: where is the server located?

master: it is not needed

student: excuse me but what is "Smart" about all of this?

master: everything.

in this moment, the student was enlightened

[–] HotGarbage@awful.systems 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)
[–] swlabr@awful.systems 8 points 2 days ago

116 million

There’s no way that what they’re buying is worth that much.

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