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Is AI Facing a Trough of Disillusionment?
(spectrum.ieee.org)
Its only a trough if it goes back up on the other side.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hinted as much with a January post on his personal blog. Altman wrote he was “now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it,” adding that 2025 would be the year AI agents “materially change the output of companies.”
These guys are such a joke, but they are the ones laughing $.
The same guy who said he only needed a "few" more trillion dollars to make it all work.
We are the joke
Yep.
Time to go work a service job for peanuts and then play video games when I get home until I fall asleep.
I sure can't wait until election season so I can vote for whoever my rulers chose for me.
Now they are talking about replacing teachers wholesale with AI. We are getting closer to the end game and complete control of the human mind.
This makes me think we’re looking at the other side of the uncanny valley
This technology is equivalent to the atomic bomb for population manipulation. This is why the wealthy are so obsessed. They are getting closer to being able to control everyone by modeling our behavior.
The scariest part is no one is talking about the reality of this technology and what it will be used for. They have completely captured the narrative already.
To be fair, schools are already indoctrination mills.
I hope it's more of a cliff. A trough implies that it will go back the other way.
Can’t close the Pandora’s box. AI is already out there and it’s being used in a variety of places. Some of those things are good, bad, ugly, useless, stupid or even terrifying. Once AI reaches the plateau of productivity, all the useless and stupid applications are gone, but the other ones will stay.
That all depends upon if they keep throwing dollars into the furnace to run the models.
"Useful" stuff will have to do an evaluation once they're paying the true cost for these things as well, because most people are not running their own models...this shit is more centralized then even regular cloud computing.
I wasn’t talking about delusional LLMs and creepy image generators.
AI as a whole encompasses so much more. Like, image resolution up scaling, cleaning a noisy audio signal, generating new frames to make choppy stop motion animation smoother, finding optimal paths for logistics chains, designing a smart way to pack a pallet full of random boxes just to name a few. All of that stuff is already happening and is here to stay.
Cramming silly LLMs into every application might take a hit though. They could still be a solution to something, but we just haven’t quite figured it out yet.
Yeah, but they have tied AI to LLMs. If the investors that inflated this bubble sour on LLMs, the investments for AI more broadly speaking will probably dry up with it.
That’s true. The general sentiment of AI will influence investor behavior and the availability of money. If LLMs fail spectacularly, it could make it harder to find investors open to the idea of using AI for various other things too. The past 10 years has seen a massive rise in new AI companies, so they will be able keep on selling tried and tested AI even when investor money dries up.
“I think we are running out of low-hanging fruits to improve on,” says Xu. He added that the early agentic gains came from simple changes, “things like formatting errors, or not understanding tools [...] I think we’re going to slow down until we find the next big thing.”
Another AI winter? Another AI winter? (Possible in the medium or long term)
Although we'll also have to wait and see what John Carmack does, because he's also involved in this.
I think we may see an agentic AI winter, but there are so many other applications and systems that can benefit from deep learning still.
I hope the winter lasts till I die. Godfuck I want a peaceful life.
I would not be concerned if it actually was a black hole of disillusionment...
Yeah, no one knows how to use it at scale in the enterprise without consultants setting it up for you.
this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2025
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